Special Public Opinion Poll on the Upcoming Palestinian Elections
29-31 December 2005
The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research conducted a pre election poll during the period between 29-31 December 2005 in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. The poll aimed at predicting the likely outcome of the legislative elections scheduled for 25 January 2006. The poll was conducted among 4560 potential voters (of which 3000 came from the West Bank and 1560 from the Gaza Strip) in 228 randomly selected population locations (of which 78 came from the Gaza Strip and 150 from the West Bank). The sample was distributed over 16 electoral districts in order to allow the prediction of the likely outcome at the electoral district level. The sample was then re-weighted to reflect the size of each electoral district in the total voter register in order to allow the prediction of the outcome at the national level. Margin of error for the lists at the national level is 2%; at the electoral district level, the margin of error ranges between 4% to 7%.
For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki or Walid Ladadweh at 02-296 4933 or email: firstname.lastname@example.org.
(1) Results of Lists at the National Level
- 43% will vote for Fateh List while 25% will vote for the List of Change and Reform, and 19% remain undecided. List of Independent Palestine (headed by Mustafa Barghouti) receives 5%, and List of Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa receives 3%. It is also expected that the List of the Alternative (headed by Qais Abdul Karim) and the List of the Third Way (headed by Salam Fayyad) will pass the 2% threshold. All other lists are not expected to pass the 2% threshold.
(2) Results for Candidates in the Electoral Districts
- Fateh’s candidates are strong in the following six electoral districts: Jerusalem, Jericho, Toubas, Salfit, Qalqilia, and Rafah.
- Change and Reform’s candidates are strong in the following three districts: Gaza City, Deir al Balah, and Northern Gaza
- The contest is close in the following seven districts: Nablus, Bethlehem, Jenin, Hebron, Tulkarm, Ramallah, and Khanyounis.
- The following candidates have a good chance of winning in their districts:
Candidates with a good chance of winning
Hamid Beitawi, Mahmud Aloul, Ghassan Shaka’a, Ahmad Haj Ali
Jamal Shoubaki, Nayif Rojoub, Nabil Amr, Samir Qadi, Jibril Rojoub
Bshara Daud, Khalid Tafish
Bilal Azrael (or Ahmad Deek)
Azzam al Ahmad, Fakhri Turkoman
Hatim Abdul Qadir
Qaddoura Faris, Abdul Fattah Hamail, Hasan Yousif, Fadl Salih
Ahmad Hazza’, Walid Assaf
Said Siam, Faraj al Ghoul, Ahmad Bahar, Khalil Abu Usama, Jamal Nassar
Dier al Balah
Abdul Rahman al Jamal, Salim Salama, Ahmad Abu Ali
Mohammad Hijazi, Radwan al Akhras, Ashraf Joum’a
Mohammad Dahlan, Younis al Astal
Mushir al Masri, Kamal Sharafi, Yousif al Sharafi
- This list has 40 names of candidates only from a total of 66 eligible winners. At this time, it is difficult to predict the winning chances of the remaining 26 eligible winners as the results are too close to allow such prediction.
- Party affiliation of the likely 40 winning candidates is as follows: 19 (or 48%) from the List of Change and Reform, 18 (or 45%) from Fateh List, and 3 (or 7%) are independents.
* This pre election poll was conducted with support from the Japanese Government