Palestinian Elections and the Cairo Agreement
February 19, 1994
This is the sixth public opinion poll conducted by the Surveys Research Unit (SRU) at the Center for Palestine Research and Studies (CPRS). SRU conducts a monthly public opinion poll regarding the peace process, the Declaration of Principles, political attitudes, and elections. The poll results are published independently and with unit analysis in both Arabic and English. They provide a vital resource for the community and for researchers needing statistical information. The polls give members of the community opportunity to voice their opinions and to seek to influence decision makers on issues of concern to them. They also serve as a historical record of Palestinian attitudes at the various political stages.
At the present time, CPRS is conducting its March poll so as to assess political attitudes after the Hebron massacre. CPRS plans to publish the results of the March poll before the end of this month. The enclosed poll was conducted 5 days before the massacre and 10 days after the signing of the "Cairo Agreement", which dealt with boarder-crossings, roads, and security. The text of the agreement was published in local newspapers and a number of commentaries were written about it. Still, the agreement went very much unnoticed by many Palestinians because of the low-key signing ceremony and the complexity of the issues involved. This, however, didn't prevent public opinion from forming in regards to the agreement.
In addition, political changes seem to have contributed to a state of frustration in the Occupied Territories (especially in Gaza). This can be seen in the absence of the rule of law, arms proliferation, internal violence, and further Israeli oppression. The killings of a number of Palestinians by the Israeli military led to a three-day strike in Gaza between the 15th and the 18th of February. The 17th was a strike day in the West Bank.
Enclosed are the results of the most recent public opinion poll that has been conducted in the West Bank (including Arab Jerusalem) and the Gaza Strip.
One of the objectives set for this poll is to attempt to project Palestinian voting patterns in the case of democratic elections. Therefore, 1993 Palestinians were interviewed. A total of 1304 questionnaires were received from the West Bank and 689 questionnaires were received from the Gaza Strip.
Polling "electoral" districts in the West Bank
For the purposes of this poll, the West Bank was divided into 8 "areas" which were further divided into 18 "districts". The population size for these districts ranges from 75,000 to 105,000 (except in Jericho and Nablus (West)), depending on the population distribution pattern.CPRS researchers planned to conduct 70 to 90 interviews in each district according to population size. The data collection process allowed for successful results in almost all districts (more details in the data collection section). For each area, the total sample size is much higher.... More