Negotiations, PNA and Opposition, Jordanian-Palestinian Relations, Elections, and the Presidency of the PNA, December 29-31, 1994
Evaluation of the Palestinian National AuthorityThe poll results show that 8.8% of the respondents evaluate the performance of the PNA as excellent, 22.6% as good, 29.5% as average, 15.6% as weak, and 3.1% as bad. The evaluation of the performance is more positive in the Gaza Strip than in the West Bank, where 36.4% of Gaza respondents evaluated the performance as excellent or good, while only 28.2% of West Bank respondents chose one of these options. In contrast, 31.1% of West Bank respondents gave a negative evaluation, compared with 24.8% of Gaza respondents. It seems that the general evaluation of the authority tends toward a "wait and see" attitude as most Palestinians give the PNA a positive or "average" evaluation. It seems that Palestinians are giving the authority an additional chance to prove itself and also that most Palestinians are favorably disposed towards the authority because of the pressures and delays imposed upon it by Israel. During the recent period, the Palestinian authority dealt in public speeches with issues of concern to the people using a language which reflected the pulse of the street.
The poll results show that the positive evaluation of the performance of the PNA is found to a noticeable extent in the areas of Gaza Middle and Gaza City. As for the negative evaluation, it is clearly found in Jericho, Hebron, and Jerusalem, as shown in Table 10.
Table 10
Evaluation of the Performance of the PNA by Area of Residence
Excellent Good % Average % Weak % Bad % Don't
% Know %
Nablus 04.6 26.6 26.6 21.1 08.3 12.8
Tulkarm 07.0 19.8 33.7 18.6 09.3 11.6
Jenin 08.0 16.0 36.0 13.3 10.7 16.0
Jericho 15.0 05.0 35.0 25.0 20.0 ---
R'llah 10.5 18.1 24.8 14.3 08.6 23.8
Hebron 09.2 17.5 30.0 18.3 21.7 03.3
Beth. 07.1 24.3 28.6 12.9 18.6 08.6
J'lem 07.7 24.4 17.9 17.9 19.2 12.8
Gaza North 11.0 18.0 39.0 12.0 10.0 10.0
Gaza City 10.4 29.1 26.9 10.4 15.7 07.5
Gaza 07.8 40.0 24.4 12.2 12.2 03.3
Middle
Gaza South 11.2 16.9 36.0 19.1 07.9 09.0
Also, the negative evaluation of the PNA is higher among men than among women. With regards to education, we find 48% of college educated respondents and 60% of respondents with higher degrees evaluating the PNA negatively.Table 11
Evaluation of the Performance of the PNA by Education
Excellent Good % Average % Weak % Bad % Don't
% Know %
9 years 11.0 22.8 31.5 11.9 09.5 13.4
or less
Tawjihi 08.1 22.0 28.7 17.7 13.6 09.9
2-Year 04.1 25.4 32.8 19.7 09.0 09.0
college
B.A. 06.5 21.8 22.6 18.5 27.4 03.2
M.A. or 11.1 11.1 22.2 22.2 27.8 05.6
PhD
We also find a relationship between age and evaluation of the PNA. In particularly, negative evaluation of this performance increases among the younger respondents.Table 12
Evaluation of the Performance of the PNA by Age
Excellent Good % Average % Weak % Bad % Don't
% Know %
35 or 08.2 21.0 30.0 16.1 16.1 08.6
Younger
36 or 09.4 25.3 28.7 14.9 08.7 13.0
Older
Not surprisingly, positive evaluation of the PNA comes largely from supporters of Fateh, whereas we find most of the supporters of opposition factions giving the authority a negative evaluation.
Participation of the Palestinian Opposition in the PNAMost Palestinians (75%) support the participation of Hamas and other opposition groups in the PNA, by accepting ministerial appointments or positions in national institutions, compared with 17.8% who oppose the idea. The large support for the idea can be attributed to a number of factors. Many Palestinians, especially supporters of the opposition, might consider participation by the opposition parties in the authority to be a right. Also, others might see participation of the opposition as an alternative to internal conflict and a means to achieve national unity as well as a way for the opposition to assert its views from within the national institutions. Support for the idea is higher throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Support for the participation of the opposition was higher among older respondents than among younger ones, as shown by Table 13.
Table 13
Participation of Opposition Groups in the PNA by Age
Yes % No % No Opinion %
18-35 71.7 22.3 06.0
36+ 80.3 10.8 08.9
It was noticeable that support for participation of the opposition in the PNA is significant among the opposition groups as it reaches 68.4% among Hamas supporters.Table 14
Participation of Opposition Groups in the PNA by Political Affiliation
Yes % No % No Opinion %
PFLP 51.4 41.7 06.9
Fateh 82.6 13.5 03.9
Islamic Jihad 57.1 39.3 03.6
PPP 77.8 22.2 ---
Hamas 68.4 28.2 03.4
DFLP 53.3 40.0 06.7
Feda 100.0 --- ---
Islamic 74.4 15.4 10.2
Independents
Nationalist 75.0 09.6 15.4
Independents
Other 84.1 04.9 11.0
None of the above 69.4 11.3 19.4
ElectionsThe poll included a number of questions concerning Palestinian attitudes regarding elections, including participation in elections, election of the PNA president, and political affiliation.
A. View of Elections
The majority of Palestinians (80.9%) preferred elections as the best means to select the members of the Palestinian "elected council." In contrast, 10% said that the PLO should appoint the members of this council and 6.1% preferred a system of appointments by quota. These results correspond with the results from previous polls, where for example in October 1994, the results indicated that 81% of the respondents preferred elections.
B. Elections Boycott or Participation
The poll results show that if the opposition groups call for a boycott of the PISGA elections, 26.4% of respondents will boycott, whereas 57.3% will participate in the elections despite the call for boycott. The results indicate that there is no significant difference between the West Bank and Gaza Strip in this regard. The intent to boycott the elections is higher in the areas of Bethlehem, Nablus, and Jerusalem, whereas the highest percentage of those intending to participate is in Jenin. (See Table 15).
Table 15
Participation in Elections by Area of Residence
Will Boycott % Will Participate % No Opinion %
Nablus 36.1 55.6 08.3
Tulkarm 18.8 63.5 17.6
Jenin 16.0 70.7 13.3
Jericho 25.0 65.0 10.0
Ramallah 13.3 66.7 20.0
Hebron 40.0 41.7 18.3
Bethlehem 37.7 43.5 18.8
Jerusalem 30.8 51.3 17.9
Gaza North 25.3 53.5 21.2
Gaza City 20.9 55.2 23.9
Gaza Middle 28.9 65.6 05.6
Gaza South 22.5 65.2 12.4
The results of the poll indicated that more men (30%) than women (22%) will boycott the elections. At the same time, we find that the intent to boycott the elections is higher among the most educated respondents, as shown in Table 16.Table 16
Participation in Elections by Education
Will Boycott % Will Participate % No Opinion %
9 years or less 22.8 58.3 18.9
Tawjihi 27.5 58.1 14.5
2-Year College 26.2 59.0 14.8
B.A. 33.1 54.0 12.9
M.A. or PhD 58.8 17.6 23.6
Most of the supporters of the opposition factions will adhere to a boycott of elections if these factions call for one. However, 28.8% of the supporters of Hamas will participate in elections despite a call for a boycott.Table 17
Participation in Elections by Political Affiliation
Will Boycott % Will Participate % No Opinion %
PFLP 73.6 22.2 04.2
PPP --- 44.4 55.6
Hamas 57.6 28.8 13.6
Feda 11.1 88.9 ---
Islamic Jihad 57.1 28.6 14.3
Fateh 08.8 81.5 09.7
DFLP 60.0 33.3 06.7
Islamic 30.8 43.6 25.6
Independents
Nationalist 11.5 67.3 21.2
Independents
Other 17.1 56.1 26.8
None of the Above 22.4 40.0 37.6
C. President of the PNAThe proposed law for Palestinian elections might call for direct popular elections for the head of the authority. Therefore, the poll repeated a question regarding a list of distinguished persons as possible candidates: Ahmed Yassin (founder of Hamas, the largest Islamic group), Yassir Arafat (PLO chairman, head of the PNA, and leader of Fateh), Hayder Abdel Shafi (an independent nationalist), and George Habash (head of the PFLP). Also, respondents were given the option of specifying another person if they chose.
The results of this poll corresponded to a large extent with what was shown in the previous poll of November 1994, where Arafat received the most support, especially in Gaza. Support for Ahmed Yassin and George Habash is slightly higher in the Gaza Strip than in the West Bank. As for Hayder Abdel Shafi, his support is higher in the West Bank than in the Gaza Strip.
Table 18
Comparison Between November and December Polls Regarding Election for PNA President
Arafat % Yassin % Abdel Shafi % Habash % Others %
Nov. 1994 44.2 19.7 08.9 06.8 20.4
Dec. 1994 48.5 18.4 08.6 05.8 18.7
As shown in Table 18, support for Arafat has increased in December 1994 by 4.3%. Supoprt for the other potential candidates remains relatively stable. Arafat's popularity has increased particularly in the West Bank, compared with last month where it was 37%, and has now reached 45.5%. The increasing support for Arafat among independents is an explanation for the general increase in his popularity. Support for Arafat came to a large extent from the North of the West Bank, particularly Jenin and Nablus, where we also notice an increase in support for Fateh. Despite the increase in support for Arafat in Hebron, we can still regard this area as highly competitive, since the rate of support for Arafat is the lowest there, and since the rate of suport for his competitors is relatively high. (See Table 19).
Table 19
Election for Head of the PNA by Area of Residence
Yassin % Arafat % Abdel Shafi Habash % Other %
%
Nablus 12.1 58.9 04.7 00.9 23.4
Tulkarm 13.1 59.5 10.7 01.2 15.5
Jenin 13.3 62.7 06.7 --- 17.3
Jericho 15.0 50.0 15.0 05.0 15.0
Ramallah 25.0 33.7 07.7 01.0 32.7
Hebron 24.8 33.3 16.2 11.1 14.5
Bethlehem 17.9 43.3 10.4 17.9 10.4
Jerusalem 14.3 31.2 11.8 05.2 37.5
Gaza North 18.2 48.5 06.1 13.1 14.1
Gaza City 20.7 54.8 08.9 04.4 11.1
Gaza Middle 16.9 58.3 04.5 07.9 12.4
Gaza South 22.5 50.6 04.5 03.4 19.1
The results of the poll show that support for Arafat and Yassin is higher among the least educated, whereas support for Habash and Abdel Shafi increases with education.Table 20
Election for Head of the PNA by Education
Yassin % Arafat % Abdel Shafi % Habash % Other %
9 Years or 19.8 53.5 06.5 03.0 17.2
less
Tawjihi 21.1 47.8 07.0 06.5 17.6
2-Year 14.3 46.2 10.9 07.6 21.0
College
B.A. 10.6 39.0 14.6 10.6 25.2
M.A. or PhD 17.6 17.6 23.5 23.5 17.6
CPRS has polled Palestinians concerning their views on a number of possible candidates for the post of a vice-president. This question will be repeated in our next poll, which will allow for a comparative assessment of the results.D. Political Affiliation
The poll results indicate that the popularity of Fateh is consistent with the figures obtained in the previous poll. Support for Fateh is still at 43.1%, compared with 42.3% for the previous poll. However, in the West Bank, we notice a 4% increase in the popularity of Fateh between the current and previous polls. This increase might be due to the fact that preparations for Fateh's anniversary celebrations were taking place during the polling days. Also, the presence of a number of Fateh leaders in the protest marches regarding the settlements may have increased support for the organization in the West Bank particularly. In addition, the messages conveyed by PNA leaders were becoming more in harmony with the popular sentiments in relation to settlements, prisoners, and lack of Israeli commitment, which may have influenced Fateh's popularity. The greatest increase in Fateh's popularity was in the north of the West Bank, which maintained the highest support rates, although increases were measured throughout the West Bank.
Table 21
Political Affiliation by Place of Residence
PFLP % Fateh % I. PPP % Hamas % DFLP % Feda % Isl Nat O'er No one
Jihad Ind Ind % % %
% %.
Nablus 00.9 51.9 00.9 00.9 13.9 01.9 --- 06.5 03.7 06.5 13.0
T'lkrm --- 48.8 --- --- 15.5 02.4 01.2 02.4 06.0 04.8 19.0
Jenin 01.4 62.2 02.7 01.4 08.1 01.4 --- 04.1 05.4 02.7 10.8
Jericho 10.0 35.0 --- 05.0 15.0 --- --- --- 15.0 --- 20.0
Ram.'h 03.8 26.9 02.9 01.9 18.3 01.9 01.9 06.7 05.8 19.2 10.6
Hebron 09.2 30.8 08.3 02.5 20.0 02.5 02.5 05.8 06.7 02.5 09.2
B'hem 14.5 37.7 04.3 --- 14.5 02.9 01.4 02.9 07.2 08.7 05.8
J'salem 07.8 41.6 02.6 --- 11.7 01.3 01.3 05.2 03.9 03.9 20.8
Gaza N 16.0 43.0 03.0 --- 19.0 01.0 --- --- 04.0 06.0 08.0
Gaza C 06.7 45.5 03.0 --- 14.2 --- --- 03.7 05.2 11.9 09.7
Gaza M 08.9 48.9 --- --- 20.0 --- --- 01.1 02.2 08.9 10.0
Gaza S 04.5 44.3 --- 01.1 25.0 01.1 01.1 01.1 01.1 08.0 12.5
The current poll confirms that support for Fateh is lower in the middle and the south of the West Bank than the north; that it comes more from men than women; and more from the least educated, where for example, 49% of those Palestinians with less than nine years of education declared their support for Fateh, compared with 38% of those with bachelor degrees. The poll did not indicate any significant change in the popularity of all other groups as, for example, support for Hamas is still at 16.6%. Support for this group is larger in the areas of Hebron, Ramallah, and Rafah. Support for PFLP is more in Gaza than in the West Bank. This support is higher in the middle and south of the West Bank than in the north. Among students, almost equal support goes to the opposition and to the support camps, as a coalition among Hamas, DFLP, PFLP, Islamic Jihad, and Islamic independents would get 40% of the students' vote and a coalition among Fateh, Feda, and PPP would get 42% of the vote.
UnemploymentWe are able to estimate the unemployment rate in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip from a group of questions related to the subject of work among the respondents. We estimate from the poll results that the unemployment rate among Palestinians is at 30.5% (compared with 38% last month). As expected, the unemployment rate is lower in the West Bank (21.5%) than the Gaza Strip where it is as high as 44%. To reach to this estimate, we used the definition of unemployment suggested by the International Labor Organization (ILO) which defines the "unemployed" as those who were not engaged in any paying work during the week preceding the poll, who wished to work, and were looking for work during the time.
The unemployment rate increases if we include those who are part of the labor force and wish to work, but are discouraged to look for it In this case the unemployment rate in both the West bank and Gaza reaches 42.8%; in the West Bank 35% and in the Gaza Strip 54%.
The results of the poll show that 81% of those employed have full-time jobs (36 hours or more per week), and 19% have part-time jobs, as they work less than 36 hours per week. A total of 59% of those who declared their desire to work are actually looking for a job; the rest are discouraged workers who have no incentive to look for work. The poll shows that 79% of the unemployed are men and 21% are women. The unemployment rate is high among the young as 74% of the unemployed are less than 36 years old.
1. With regard to the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations and given the current framework of circumstances, I support...
Total West Bank Gaza
a. stopping negotiations permanently 20.6% 23.3% 16.3% b. suspending negotiations until 31.5% 32.6% 29.8% Israel abides by the DoP. c. continuing negotiations 38.7% 35.7% 43.5% d. no opinion 09.2% 08.4% 10.3%
2. With regard to future Palestinian-Jordanian relations, I support the establishment of ...
a. Two independent states: 64.5% 59.8% 71.9% Palestine and Jordan. b. Complete unity between Palestine 18.5% 22.6% 11.9% and Jordan. c. Confederation between Palestine 14.4% 15.3% 13.1% and Jordan. d. Other (Specify) 02.6% 02.3% 03.1%
3. With regard to the events at the Palestine Mosque in Gaza on Friday November 18, 1994 which resulted in the deaths of 13 Palestinians and the wounding of 250, I believe the responsibility for these events lies with...
a. Israel 32.7% 34.9% 29.1% b. Hamas and other Palestinian 07.1% 07.0% 07.3% opposition groups. c. the Palestinian National Authority 18.4% 19.5% 16.5% d. all of the above 28.7% 31.6% 24.3% e. other parties (specify) 13.1% 07.0% 22.8%
4. What is your evaluation of the performance of the Palestinian National Authority?
a. Excellent 08.8% 08.0% 10.1% b. Good 22.6% 20.2% 26.3% c. Average 29.5% 28.4% 31.2% d. Weak 15.6% 17.2% 13.0% e. Bad 13.1% 13.9% 11.8% f. Don't Know 10.4% 12.3% 07.6%
5. Do you support the participation of Hamas and other Palestinian opposition groups in the Palestinian National Authority (i.e. accepting ministerial appointments and entering the various PNA institutions)?
a. Yes 75.0% 74.0% 76.6% b. No 17.8% 18.1% 17.4% c. No opinion 07.2% 07.9% 06.0%
6. In your opinion, what is the best way to choose the members of the "Palestinian Council" of the Palestinian Interim Self-Governing Authority?
a. Appointment by PLO leadership 10.0% 10.5% 09.2% b. Appointment by political groups 06.1% 04.1% 09.2% on a quota basis. c. Political Elections 80.9% 82.6% 79.2% d. Other 03.0% 02.8% 03.4%
7. If the Palestinian opposition calls for a boycott of elections for the National Authority Council, I...
a. will boycott the elections 26.4% 27.9% 24.0% b. will participate in the elections 57.3% 56.0% 59.3% c. No opinion 16.3% 16.1% 16.7%
8. In a statement released by the "Local Government and Elections Commission" it was reported that the proposed Palestinian electoral law will state that the head of the Palestinian Authority will be elected directly by the people. If a separate election for the head of the National Authority takes place, and the following nominate themselves, I will choose...
a. Ahmed Yassin 18.4% 17.7% 19.6% b. Yassir Arafat 48.5% 45.5% 53.3% c. Hayder Abdel Shafi 08.6% 10.0% 06.3% d. George Habash 05.8% 05.1% 07.0% e. Other (Specify) 18.7% 21.7% 13.8%
9. If elections were to be held today, and you decided to participate, you would vote for candidates affiliated with:
a. PFLP 06.7% 05.3% 09.0% b. Fateh 43.1% 41.5% 45.5% c. Islamic Jihad 02.6% 03.2% 01.7% d. PPP 00.8% 01.2% 00.2% e. Hamas 16.6% 15.1% 18.9% f. DFLP 01.4% 02.0% 00.5% g. Feda 00.8% 01.2% 00.2% h. Islamic independents 03.7% 04.9% 01.7% i. Nationalist independents 04.9% 05.8% 03.4% j. Other (specify) 07.7% 06.9% 09.0% k. None of the above 11.7% 12.9% 09.9%
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