Armed Attacks, Negotiations, Jenin Proposal, Elections, Economic Situation, and the Palestinian-Jordanian Relations, March 16-18, 1995
This is the sixteenth public opinion poll conducted by the Survey Research Unit (SRU) at the Center for Palestine Research and Studies. The following topics are covered in this poll: elections, the proposal to place Jenin under the Palestinian Authority, Palestinian-Jordanian relations, Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, and armed attacks against Israeli targets.SRU has been conducting regular public opinion polls to document an important phase in the history of the Palestinian people and to record the reactions of the Palestinian community with regard to current political events. CPRS does not adopt political positions and does not tolerate attempts to influence the conclusions reached or published for political motives. CPRS is committed to providing a scholarly contribution to analysis and objective study and to publishing the results of all our studies and research. Poll results provide a vital resource for the community and for researchers needing statistical information and analysis. The polls give members of the community opportunity to voice their opinion and to seek to influence decision makers on issues of concern to them. In a broader sense, CPRS strives to promote the status of scientific research in Palestine. SRU disseminates the results of the polls through a number of means, including its community outreach program where the results are shared and discussed with a large number of Palestinians. Since previous polls have shown Hebron to be a particularly unique area, this poll focuses on Hebron in order to compare it with other areas with regard to the topics discussed and a larger sample was taken in the Hebron area. This approach also allows CPRS researchers to test the methodology used, by comparing previous smaller samples with the larger one gathered this month. (See Focus on Hebron).
Here are the main findings of this poll:
Enclosed are the results of the current public opinion poll that has been conducted in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip (see Appendix) and a summary of the analysis of the results.
- -67% of the Palestinians support continuation of negotiations.
- -33% support armed attacks against Israeli targets, and 44% oppose them.
- -65% support two independent states: Palestine and Jordan.
- -49% are optimistic and 32% are pessimistic.
- -52% oppose the suggestion to extend the Palestinian Authority to Jenin before the other areas, compared with 33% who support it.
- -37% evaluate the Palestinian Authority's performance as excellent or good, 30% as fair, 17% as weak or bad.
- -The unemployment level in the West Bank and Gaza decreased to 38%, and 53% felt that the economic situation had deteriorated.
- -56.5% support Arafat and 49.4% support Fateh.
In the period immediately preceding this poll the closure of the West Bank and Gaza Strip continued, although it was eased slightly as some permits were re-issued. Also, negotiations, which had been suspended following the Beit Lid attack, resumed in Cairo between the Palestinians and the Israelis concerning elections and redeployment of Israeli troops in the West Bank. There were reports of progress in the elections talks. Arafat and Peres met and announced that they have set the 1st of July as a deadline for finishing the redeployment and elections talks. Reports were published indicating that a secret deal concerning redeployment may have already been reached. During this period, Yassir Arafat decided to form a National Security Court to try persons accused of security offenses. Also, a conference of the foreign ministers of Israel, Egypt, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority was held in Amman concerning those Palestinians displaced during the 1967 war and the possibility of their return. The U.S. Secretary of State visited Gaza in the context of his Middle East trip designed to encourage resumption of the Israeli-Syrian negotiations. This period also marked the first anniversary of the Hebron Mosque Massacre and many Palestinians were prohibited from entering Jerusalem for Ramadan prayers. Also, it marked the first celebrations of Eid al-Fitr under Palestinian Authority for the autonomous areas. There were no incidents of Palestinian armed attacks against Israeli targets reported during this relatively calm period.
The questionnaire was designed through consultations with experts. A pre-test involving fifty questionnaires was conducted in the Nablus area prior to the poll. The questionnaire instrument includes a large number of demographic variables as indicated in the section on sample distribution. During this poll, a question where respondents were asked to specify their religion was added to the demographic section. CPRS also added a question regarding marital status that had been used previously but dropped for a period. The section on unemployment that was added in the previous two polls remained in this questionnaire as well.Household Sample Selection
SRU researchers adopted a multi-stage sample selection process. The process of sample selection began with the creation of lists of all locations in the West Bank and Gaza according to district, population size and distribution, and type of locality (city, town, village, and refugee camp). A simple random sample of locations to be surveyed was selected from these lists, as shown in Table 1. Fieldworkers and researchers created maps for these localities. These maps indicated the boundaries, main streets, and clusters of residential neighborhoods in these localities which were further divided into a number of sampling units (blocks) with each unit comprising an average of two hundred housing units. The sample units (blocks) to be surveyed were selected randomly.
Table 1
Sample Localities Selection*
The Following table lists the localities that were included in the sample for this month. The percentages reflect the weighting for the disproportionately large Hebron sample.
District (Sample Localities (Type) District (Sample Localities (Type)
Size/ %) Size/%)
Nablus (112/09.8%) Nablus Salim, Tulkarm/Qalqilya Tulkarm city and camp,
Taluza, 'Aqraba, (90/07.8%) Siyda, Kafr 'Abush,
Balata Camp Bala'a
Jenin (90/07.8%) Dir Abu Da'if, Jericho (25/02.2%) Jericho
'Araana, Jaba',
Toubas, Jenin Camp
Ramallah (111/09.7%) Bateen, Beitounia, Hebron (284*/11.9%) Hebron, Dura, Halhoul,
Ain Yabrud, *See introduction al-'Aroub, Beit 'Auwa,
al-Bireh, Ramallah, and page 4 for al-Shiyukh, Bini
Jalazon Camp explanation of Na'aim, Beit Ula,
Hebron sample size Tarqumiya, Yatta,
al-Thahiriya, Beith
Kahil, Beit Ummar,
al-Rihiya
Jerusalem (76/06.6%) Old City, Beit Bethlehem (75/06.5%) Bethlehem, Deheisheh
Hanina, Beit Safafa, Camp, al-Sawahra, Abu
Shufat Camp Dis
Gaza North (70/06.1%) Beit Hanoun, Jabalya Gaza City (173/15.1%) al-Rimal, ad-Daraj,
Camp, Beit Lahiya as-Shati, al-Sheik
Radhwan, al-Tofaah,
al-Zatoun
Gaza Middle Nusseirat Camp, Dir Gaza South Rafah city and camp
(140/12.2%) Balah Camp, Bureij (50/04.4%)
Camp, 'Absaan
Kabira, al-Qaraara,
Khan Younis City
*The fieldworkers conducted interviews in 77 cities, villages, and camps where over 145 sampling units were used.Households were selected based on a systematic sampling framework. For example, if the fieldworker estimated the number of houses in the sampling unit to be two hundred and is assigned ten interviews, the fieldworker divided the 200 by 10, obtaining 20. Therefore, the fieldworker would conduct the first interview in the 20th house, and the second in the 40th, and so on. Fieldworkers were asked to start their sample selection of housing units from a well-defined point in the area such as a post office, mosque, business, etc. They were asked to report on the direction of their sampling walks. Fieldworkers played an active role in drawing the maps for the localities in the sample and in estimating the number of houses in each block.
To select the individual within the selected household to be interviewed, fieldworkers had to flip a coin twice. The first flip was to choose gender of the respondent and the second was to choose whether the respondent is to be older or younger than forty years. When in the household, fieldworkers would conduct the interview with the person who has the characteristics that they selected in this manner.
(Expressed as a % of the total sample)*Specialists (University teacher, engineer, doctor, lawyer, pharmacist, excecutive).
Sample Distribution March 1995 Education March 1995 West Bank
Gaza Strip63.0 (62.0)
37.0 (38.0)Up to 9 yrs.
10-12 years
Two-Yr. Coll.
University
Degree(s)51.0 (53.0)
28.0 (27.0)
11.0
10.0 (20.0)***Muslim
Christian96.5
03.5Male
Female48.1
51.9City
Town/Village
Refugee Camp34.9
40.5
24.6Refugee
Non-Refugee
46.0
54.0Single
Married
Divorced or
Widowed19.5
77.0
03.5Age
18-22
23-26
27-30
31-35
36-42
43-50
Over 50
14.4
14.1
13.9
14.8
15.7
09.7
17.2Occupation
Laborers
Craftsmen
Housewives
Specialists*
Employees**
Merchants
Students
Farmers
Retired
None
11.4
08.7
42.0
03.1
10.5
03.5
05.8
02.8
01.6
09.2
**Employees(school teacher, government employee, nurse, lower-level company employee.
Population Estimates are based on the "Statistical Abstract of Israel" (1993) and FAFO (1993).
*** for all post-secondary degrees.We received 863 questionnaires from the West Bank and 433 from Gaza, for a total of 1296 interviews. In the Hebron area, we interviewed 284 Palestinians. Since the Hebron sample is disproportionately large, it was weighted (in this case, deflated) when included in the totals. Table 2 provides the reader with data on sample distribution for the present poll where the sample was selected based on household interviews. The percentages reflect the weighting for the Hebron sample.
Our data collectors have participated in a number of workshops where the goals of the poll were discussed. They were also lectured on household interviewing, confidence building, mapping, sampling techniques, survey methods, and scientific research. Four special training seminars for data collectors were conducted during this month, attended by a total of sixty-four fieldworkers. Training for data collection was conducted in the field where actual illustrations of the sample selection and interviewing techniques were conducted.Data collectors worked in groups supervised by qualified researchers. CPRS researchers made random visits to interview stations and discussed the research process with data collectors. More than fifty percent of our data collectors were female, so as to ensure the representation of women in the sample. Data collectors were assigned a limited number of interviews (an average of 15 per day) to allow for careful interviewing. More experienced fieldworkers from the Nablus area travelled to Hebron to train fieldworkers there. An exchange of experiences, expertise, and problems was facilitated, and feedback from fieldworkers indicated their increased interest in and appreciation of the importance of their work as they gained greater exposure to other contexts.
Interviews took place primarily over a three day period (Thursday, Friday, and Saturday) and were conducted on a face-to-face basis. Household interviews resulted in a lower non-response rate, estimated at 7%. Some respondents, we believe, were reluctant to state their political views out of fear or disinterest in the present political factions .
Data were processed through the use of SPSS, a computer package that is able to detect illogical answers and other inconsistencies. The margin of error for this poll is less than 3%.
UnemploymentThe poll results indicate that the rate of unemployment is 38%, compared with 51% last month and 30% at the end of December. The data show that the heightened closure preceding our February poll which prevented all Palestinian workers from entering Israel resulted in a 19 point increase of the unemployment rate. Less than two months later, the rate dropped to 38% as some of the unemployed found some type of work in the West Bank and Gaza or were able to go back to their jobs in Israel as around 10,000 Palestinians were issued permits to enter Israel. The results of this poll and previous polls show a correlation between area of residence and unemployment rate. The various areas of the Gaza Strip (except Gaza City) suffer from unemployment the most, followed by the southern and northern districts of the West Bank. The Gaza areas are inhabited primarily by refugees who are affected by unemployment more than non-refugees. Unemployment is widespread in refugee camps and villages. Cities are least affected by unemployment. The unemployment rate is higher among women than men and among the young and the least educated. The fact that cities and the middle of the West Bank (Ramallah and Jerusalem) are least affected by unemployment might be due to a number of factors: 1)This area is more developed than other areas. Also, most of the industrial, trade, and services sector is located here. 2)The local offices of many international organizations are located in the middle of the West Bank, which is also the focus of their development projects. Also, PNA offices are centered in this area and Gaza city. 3.)The residents of this area are least dependent on work in Israel. Also, many residents of Ramallah depend on remittances from family members working abroad. As for Jerusalem residents, they are not affected by the closure to the same degree, with regard to unemployment.
With regard to education, there is a direct relationship where those with university degrees are the least affected by unemployment, particularly after the closure of Israeli markets. This may be due in part to the fact that they are least dependent on the Israeli markets and the fact most of the jobs created by the PNA institutions require higher education.
Also, we notice that the youngest respondents were the most affected by unemployment, particularly those who are married, as they are not issued permits to enter Israel for work.
Table 3
Unemployment Demographics
*West Bank North: Nablus, Tulkarm, Jenin
March 1995
Unemployed %March 1995
Unemployed %Area of Residence
WB North
WB Middle
WB South
Gaza City
Gaza Other
40.8
19.6
45.0
28.8
50.4Education
Up to 9 yrs
10-12 yrs
2-yr college
University
Degree(s)
45.2
42.9
34.6
23.9City
Town/Village
Refugee Camp
25.0
44.1
49.7Male
Female36.1
50.8Single
Married
30.8
35.6Refugee
non-Refugee
43.4
35.2Age
18-30
31-43
44-64
46.7
35.9
26.1
West Bank Middle: Ramallah, Jericho,Jerusalem
West Bank South: Bethlehem, HebronUnemployment is spread throughout the West Bank and Gaza, where it is at 43% in Gaza and 35% in the West Bank. This percentage of unemployment represents persons who are part of the labor force and did not work (not even for one hour) the week preceding the poll, who want to work, and are actively seeking work. However, if we look at the people who want to work but are not looking for some reason or another (discouraged labor), we find that their percentage is 13% of the labor force (defined here as those working or wanting to work, whether actively looking or not). Among those who are working, 84% are full-time workers and 16% are part-time.
Future Relations with JordanMost Palestinians (65%) support the establishment of two independent states: Jordan and Palestine, compared with 29% supporting a form of unity with Jordan, whether through confederation (14%) or complete unity (15%). In this respect, we find that more West Bank residents support a form of unity with Jordan than Gaza Strip residents. We notice that there is a decrease in support among Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza for a form of unity with Jordan, whether complete unity or confederation, where support for this idea was at 37% in October of 1994 and 33% in December.
We find that support for a form of unity with Jordan is 41% among those with a bachelor's degree and decreases to 23% among those with secondary school education. (See Table 4)
Table 4
Attitude Towards Future Relations with Jordan by Education
2 Ind. Countries Complete Unity % Confederation Other %
% %
up to 9 yrs 63.2 20.4 11.2 05.2
9-12 yrs 72.9 10.6 12.4 04.1
2-yr college 70.8 09.6 17.2 02.4
University degree(s) 53.9 11.3 28.6 06.1
Also, support for unity is higher among men than among women. This support is located to a great extent in the cities and among laborers, merchants, and specialists. Support for unity with Jordan increases with age. (See Table 5)Table 5
Attitude Towards Future Relations with Jordan by Age
Two Ind. Countries Complete Unity % Confederation % Other %
%
18-22 70.4 16.6 09.1 03.9
23-26 73.8 07.5 13.4 05.3
27-30 74.8 07.5 13.4 05.3
31-35 66.9 16.4 14.4 02.3
36-42 61.4 17.6 14.0 07.0
43-50 60.3 16.1 17.9 05.8
51+ 53.9 22.2 16.7 07.2
Support for unity is also located to a large extent among independents and among supporters of Fateh and Hamas. Support for unity (whether complete or confederation) is no higher in the area of Hebron than in other West Bank areas, rather we find that supprt for unity here is less than in any area. Support for unity with Jordan is higher in Jericho and Nablus. (See Table 6)Table 6
Attitude Towards Future Relations with Jordan by Area of Residence
Two Ind. Countries Complete Unity % Confederation % Other %
%
Nablus 55.4 22.3 16.1 06.3
Tulkarm 65.2 18.0 16.9 ---
Jenin 71.1 20.0 08.9 ---
Jericho 32.0 28.0 32.0 08.0
Ramallah 59.5 12.6 17.1 10.8
Hebron 69.0 14.8 12.3 03.9
Bethlehem 62.7 13.3 13.3 10.7
Jerusalem 60.5 19.7 11.8 07.9
Gaza North 75.7 17.1 07.1 ---
Gaza City 76.3 08.1 13.3 02.3
Gaza Middle 65.0 15.0 12.9 07.1
Gaza South 68.0 10.0 20.0 02.0
View of the FutureA total of 49% of respondents declared that they are optimistic, compared with 32% who are pessimistic and 19% who are not sure. Optimism was higher in the Gaza Strip than in the West Bank. Also, when compared with the results of previous polls (February and March 1994), the percentage of optimism has increased by at least 10%.
Optimism decreases with education where it is 57% among the least educated and increases to 39% among those with bachelor's degrees. (See Table 7)
Table 7
View of the Future by Education
Optimistic % Pessimistic % Not Sure %
up to 9 years 57.1 26.3 16.6
9-12 years 40.7 37.7 21.7
2-year college 44.5 34.7 20.8
University 38.0 39.0 23.0
degree(s)
We find also that men are more pessimistic than women. We notice that there is a direct relationship between age and optimism and that optimism is higher among supporters of Fateh than among those of other groups. (See Table 8)Table 8
View of Future by Political Affiliation (Selected Groups)
Optimistic % Pessimistic % Not Sure %
Fateh 62.8 21.0 16.2
Hamas 25.9 56.1 17.9
Islamic Jihad 37.4 47.9 14.7
DFLP 30.2 44.7 25.1
PFLP 35.0 49.2 15.8
Islamic Inds. 20.4 48.1 31.4
Nationalist Inds. 41.5 44.6 13.9
Palestinian-Israeli NegotiationsThe poll results indicate that 67% support continuing the negotiations with Israel, compared with 21% who oppose continuing them. Here also we notice a difference between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip where more respondents from Gaza support continuing the negotiations. Also, the current level of support for negotiations is unprecedented. If we look at January 1994 we find that support for the negotiations at that time was 51%. Support for negotiations is present to a large extent among supporters of Fateh, however, there is more than slight support among supporters of opposition factions. (See Table 9)
Table 9
Attitude Towards Continuing Negotiations by Political Affiliation (Selected Groups)
Yes % No % No Opinion %
Fateh 84.0 07.8 08.2
Hamas 37.6 47.9 14.5
Islamic Jihad 54.8 35.5 09.7
DFLP 66.7 33.3 ---
PFLP 45.1 43.1 11.8
Islamic Inds. 38.7 41.9 19.4
Nationalist Inds. 55.9 37.3 06.8
Support for continuing the negotiations decreases with increase in education, where those with university degrees are the most opposed to continuing them. (Table 10).Table 10
Attitude Towards Continuing Negotiations by Education
Yes % No % No Opinion %
up to 9 years 70.7 16.6 12.7
9-12 years 60.1 26.0 14.0
2-year college 68.6 24.9 06.5
University 61.5 30.8 07.6
degree(s)
As shown in Table 11, opposition to continuing the negotiations is higher among older respondents than among younger ones.Table 11
Attitude Towards Continuing Negotiations by Age
Yes % No % No Opinion %
18-22 56.1 28.6 15.3
23-26 63.0 25.9 11.1
27-30 60.2 26.9 12.9
31-35 70.1 22.6 07.3
36-42 67.6 20.4 12.0
43-50 73.3 16.9 09.8
51+ 76.1 10.1 13.8
Also, students and the unemployed are more opposed to the continuation of the negotiations than any other group (Table 12).Table 12
Attitude Towards Continuing Negotiations by Occupation
Yes % No % No Opinion %
Students 56.1 30.5 13.4
Waged laborers 66.6 24.6 08.8
Housewives 64.6 18.2 17.2
Employees 74.3 18.2 07.5
Merchants 67.5 20.8 11.8
Farmers 72.0 20.2 07.8
Craftspeople 70.2 24.9 05.0
Professionals 73.5 26.5 ---
Unemployed 63.6 28.0 08.4
Retired 83.3 11.1 05.6
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