1 January 2006
21 January 2006
Special Public Opinion Poll on the Upcoming Palestinian Elections
FEW DAYS BEFORE THE LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS, A PSR PRE ELECTION POLL SHOWS HAMAS IMPOVING ITS POSITION AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL, BUT FATEH AND HAMAS REMAIN TIED IN THE DISTRICTS
17-19 January 2006
for Policy and Survey Research conducted a pre election poll during the period between 17-19 January 2006 in the Palestinian Center West Bankand the Gaza Strip. The poll aimed at predicting the likely outcome of the legislative elections scheduled for 25 January 2006. The poll was conducted among 4516 potential voters (of which 2974 came from the West Bankand 1542 from the Gaza Strip) in 230 randomly selected population locations (of which 79 came from the Gaza Strip and 151 from the West Bank). The sample was distributed over 16 electoral districts in order to allow the prediction of the likely outcome at the electoral district level. The sample was then re-weighted to reflect the size of each electoral district in the total voter register in order to allow the prediction of the outcome at the national level. Margin of error for the lists at the national level is 2%; at the electoral district level, the margin of error ranges between 4% to 7%.
For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki or Walid Ladadweh at 02-296 4933 or email: email@example.com.
(1) Results of Lists at the National Level
- 42% will vote for Fateh List while 35% will vote for the List of Change and Reform, and 7% remain undecided. List of Independent Palestine (headed by Mustafa Barghouti) receives 5%, List of Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa receives 3%, List of the
Third Way(headed by Salam Fayyad) receives 3%, and List of the Alternative (headed by Qais Abdul Karim) receives 2%. All other lists are not expected to pass the 2% threshold.
(2) Results for Candidates in the Electoral Districts
- Fateh’s candidates are strong in the following five electoral districts:
, Ramallah, Qalqilia, Khanyounis, and Rafah. Jericho
- Change and Reform’s candidates are strong in the following five districts:
, Deir al Balah, Gaza City Northern Gaza, , and Tulkarm. Hebron
- The contest is close in the following six districts:
, Nablus , Jenin, Bethlehem , Salfit, and Toubas. Jerusalem
- The following candidates have a good chance of winning in their districts:
Candidates with a good chance of winning
Ghassan Shaka’a (Fateh), Mahmud Aloul (Fateh), and Hamid Beitawi (Change and Reform)
Saeb Erikat (Fateh)
Samir Qadi (Change and Reform), Nayif Rojoub (Change and Reform), Aziz Dwaik (Change and Reform), and Azzam Salhab (Change and Reform).
Khalid Tafish (Change and Reform), and Mahmud al Khatib (Change and Reform)
(contest is close between Bassam Daraghmaeh (Fateh) and Khalid Abu Tose (Change and Reform)
(contest is very close between Bilal Azrael (Fateh) and Nasir Audeh (Change and Reform)
Azzam al Ahmad (Fateh) and Shami al Shami (Fateh)
Hasan Khraisheh (Independent)
Hatim Abdul Qadir (Fateh), Othman Abu Gharbia (Fateh)
Qaddoura Faris (Fateh), Abdul Fattah Hamail (Fateh), Hasan Yousif (Change and Reform), Muhib Awwad (Fateh)
Ahmad Hazza’ (Fateh), Walid Assaf (Fateh)
(Change and Reform), Faraj al Ghoul (Change and Reform), Ahmad Bahar (Change and Reform), Khalil Abu Usama (Change and Reform), Jamal Nassar (Change and Reform) Siam
Dier al Balah
Abdul Rahman al Jamal (Change and Reform), Salim Salama (Change and Reform), Ahmad Abu Ali (Change and Reform)
Mohammad Hijazi (Fateh), Ashraf Joum’a (Fateh)
Mohammad Dahlan (Fateh), Ibrahim Abu Naja (Fateh)
Yousif al Sharafi (Change and Reform), Mushir al Masri (Change and Reform)
- This list has 36 names of candidates only from a total of 66 eligible winners. At this time, it is difficult to predict the winning chances of the remaining 30 eligible winners as the results are too close to allow such prediction.
- Party affiliation of the likely 36 winning candidates is as follows: 18 (or 50%) from the List of Change and Reform, 17 (or 47%) from Fateh List, and one candidate (or 3%) is independent.
This pre election poll was conducted with support from the Japanese Government
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