PSR - Survey Research Unit: Public Opinion Poll # 34
PSR Poll 33

24 December 2009

 

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (34)

 

While the status of President Abbas and Prime Minister Fayyad improves a little, the majority supports Abbas’s decision not to run in the next elections and opposes return to negotiations before the implementation of a comprehensive freeze on settlement construction and about 40% support return to armed intifada as an alternative to negotiations

 

10-12 December 2009   

 

Table of contents:

·      Main Findings

·      Domestic Palestinian Conditions

·      Peace Process  

·      Main findings in numbers

 

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 10 and 12 December 2009. The poll was conducted after four major developments that affected public perception during the last four months since our last poll in the second week of August 2009: the decision by President Abbas early in this period to postpone a vote on the Goldstone Report and his subsequent decision to reverse it, Hamas’s decision in October not to sign the reconciliation agreement submitted by Egypt and signed by Fateh, the Hamas decision in late October to prevent the election commission from preparing for elections in the Gaza Strip, and finally, the decision by Abbas in November not to run in the next Palestinian presidential elections. Total size of the sample is 1200 adults interviewed face to face in 120 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

 

Main Findings:

Findings of the fourth quarter of 2009 show a limited improvement in the standing of president Mahmud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, but the balance of power between Fateh and Hamas remains as it was four months ago. Moreover, contrary to expectations, the majority of the public does not blame Hamas for the continued split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip or for the failure to hold national elections. In fact, findings show that a majority of Palestinians blames both Fateh and Hamas together for the continued split and a majority supports Hamas’s decision not to hold elections before securing reconciliation. It is likely that the popularity of Fateh and Abbas has deteriorated considerably right after the eruption of the crisis over the Goldstone Report when a vote on the report was postponed by Abbas. But Hamas’s refusal to sign the proposed reconciliation agreement and its subsequent decision to prevent the election commission from conducting preparations for elections in the Gaza Strip redressed the imbalance caused by the Goldstone Report crisis.  It is also likely that the minor improvement in Abbas’s standing is the result of his decision not to run in the next elections as findings do not show an increase in satisfaction with his actual performance as president. The improvement in Fayyad’s standing might be the result of the increased public perception of safety and security in the West Bank as evidenced by the current findings.

Findings also show widespread support for the two-state solution, reaching about two thirds, while support for the one-state solution does not exceed fifth of the respondents. But the overwhelming majority believes the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state in the next five years are slim or non existent. Perhaps for this reason findings show two-thirds opposed to return to negotiations with Israel before the implementation of a comprehensive freeze on settlement construction including in East Jerusalem despite the fact that the overwhelming majority believes that Israel will never agree to this freeze. In the absence of negotiations, Palestinians are divided on the alternatives, with none receiving a consensus or even a majority support. But a plurality supports a return to armed intifada while smaller percentages select other alternatives such as the resort to non violent resistance, a unilateral declaration of statehood, or going to the UN Security Council.

 

(1) Domestic Palestinian Conditions

  • 57% support and 36% oppose Abbas’s decision not to run in the next elections, but 58% believe he will withdraw his decision and run
  • 25% say Hamas is responsible for the failure to hold elections,11% blame Fateh, 30% blame Israel, and 9% blame the election commission
  • 61% believe that Hamas and Fateh together are responsible for the continued split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, 17% blame Hamas alone and 12% blame Fateh
  • 61% see the unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip as the top most important Palestinian goal, while 22% believe the continued quite with Israel and the opening of the Gaza crossings is the top goal, and 16% say the top goal is the rebuilding of the Gaza Strip
  • If new presidential elections took place today, Abbas would receive 54% and Ismail Haniyeh 38%. But if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, the former receives 67% and the latter 28%.
  • The most popular figures as possible vice presidents are Marwan Barghouti (30%), Ismail Haniyeh (18%), Mustapha Barghouti and Salam Fayyad (13% each), and Saeb Erekat (7%)
  • If new parliamentary elections in which all factions participate were to take place today, Fateh receives 43%, Hamas 27%, all other lists combined 14%, and 17% say they are undecided
  • 9% say conditions in the Gaza Strip are good or very good while 31% say conditions in the West Bank are good or very good
  • Perception of personal and family safety and security increases in the West Bank to 63% and in the Gaza Strip to 65%
  • Satisfaction with the performance of Haniyeh’s government reaches 34% and with Fayyad’s government 40%

 

57% support Abbas’s decision not to run in the next presidential elections and 36% oppose it. Findings show that the greater the desire to vote for Abbas in the next elections, the greater the opposition to his decision. About 70% of those who intend to vote for him if he nominates himself oppose his decision not to run in the next elections while 27% of them support it.  Moreover, support for Abbas’s decision increases among those opposed to the peace process (75%) compared to those who support the peace process (50%), among supporters of Hamas (83%) compared to supporters of Fateh (30%). But differences between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip are minor (58% and 55% respectively). A third of the public believes that Abbas’s decision not to run in the next elections is the result of Israel’s settlement policy and Abbas’s loss of confidence in the US administration. A quarter believes the decision reflected Abbas’s disillusionment with Arab support for him and his policies while 22% believe the decision was taken due to the criticism of Abbas’s handling of the Goldstone affair, and 12% believe it was due to Hamas’s refusal to sign the reconciliation agreement. A majority of 58% believes Abbas will withdraw his decision and will eventually run in the next elections, but 21% believe that he will insist on it and might in fact submit his resignation.

Findings show that a quarter of the public believes that Hamas is responsible for the failure to hold elections on time and 11% believe Fateh is the one responsible for that. But the largest percentage, 30%, blames Israel and 9% blame the election commission.  A majority of 58% supports Hamas’s position that national elections can only take place after reconciliation and 39% oppose it. Among those who oppose Hamas’s position, 54% support holding elections even if only in the West Bank and 34% oppose that. In any case, 57% believe that the president will lose his legitimacy in January 2010 and an identical percentage believes that the Palestinian Legislative Council will lose its legitimacy at that same time. Support for Hamas’s position that national elections can only take place after reconciliation increases in the West Bank (60%) compared to the Gaza Strip (54%), among women (62%) compared to men (53%), among those who oppose the peace process (74%) compared to those who support the peace process (54%), among Hamas supporters (88%) compared to supporters of Fateh (32%).

Findings show that 61% of the public believe that Fateh and Hamas together are responsible for the continuation of the split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip; 17% believe that Hamas is responsible for the split and 12% believe Fateh is responsible. The largest percentage (61%) views the unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip as the top most important Palestinian priority  today, 22% believe the top priority is the maintenance of calm and the opening of border crossings, and 16% believe the top priority is the rebuilding of the Gaza Strip. In this regard, if Hamas wins the next elections, 48% believe this outcome would consolidate separation between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while 19% believe it would strengthen unity. But if Fateh wins the next elections, only 27% believe this would consolidate separation and 34% believe it would strengthen unity. Moreover, if Hams wins the next elections 65% believe this would lead to the strengthening of the siege and international boycott while 11% only believe this would lead to the lifting of the siege and the ending of the boycott. In contrast, if Fateh wins the next elections 10% say this would lead to the strengthening of the siege and boycott while 55% believe it would lead to the lifting of the siege and the ending of the boycott.

If new presidential elections are held today, Abbas would receive the vote of 54% of the voters (compared to 52% last August) and Haniyeh would receive 38% (the same as in last August). Only 62% of eligible voters would participate in the presidential elections. Abbas’s popularity stands at 55% in the West Bank and 52% in the Gaza Strip while Haniyeh’s popularity stands at 36% in the West Bank and 43% in the Gaza Strip. Satisfaction with the performance of Abbas remains unchanged as it was four months ago (48%) and dissatisfaction stands at 49%. If presidential elections were between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, the former would receive 67% (compared to 62% last August) and the latter would receive 28% (compared to 31% last August). Participation in presidential elections would be much higher, reaching 73%, if Barghouti and Haniyeh, rather than Abbas and Haniyeh, were the contenders. Most popular figures selected by the public as possible vice president are Marwan Barghouti (selected by 30% of the public), Ismail Haniyeh (18%), Mustafa Barghouti and Salam Fayyad (13% each), and Saeb Erekat (7%). These findings indicate an improvement in the standing of Mustafa Barghouti, Fayyad, and Erekat compared to our findings four months ago.

If new legislative elections are held today with the participation of all factions, 72% say they would participate in such elections. Of those who would participate, 43% say they would vote for Fateh and 27% say they would vote for Hamas. These results are almost the same as those we found four months ago. Fateh’s popularity in the West Bank stands at 41% compared to 46% in the Gaza Strip and Hamas’s popularity stands at 23% in the West Bank compared to 34% in the Gaza Strip. All other factions and lists receive 14% of the vote and 17% remain undecided.

Findings show a gap in public perception of conditions in the West Bank compared to conditions in the Gaza Strip. Only 9% (9% in the West Bank and 9% in the Gaza Strip) say conditions in the Gaza Strip are good or very good while 31% (28% in the West Bank and 37% in the Gaza Strip) say conditions in the West Bank are good or very good. Moreover, in the West Bank, perception of personal and family safety and security continues to improve standing today at 63%, compared to 58% four months ago. In the Gaza Strip, perception of safety and security stands today at 65% compared to 63% four months ago. Despite this improvement, 21% of West Bankers and 34% of Gazans say that political, security, and economic conditions force them to seek immigration to other countries.

Satisfaction with the performance of the Haniyeh government reaches 34% (30% in the West Bank and 42% in the Gaza Strip) and satisfaction with the performance of Salam Fayyad’s government stands at 40% (42% in the West Bank and 36% in the Gaza Strip). 36% give a positive evaluation to the status of democracy and human rights in the West Bank under Fayyad’s government and 25% give a positive evaluation to the status of democracy and human rights in the Gaza Strip under Haniyeh’s government. Moreover, 30% believe Fayyad’s government is the legitimate one while 26% believe that Haniyeh’s government is the legitimate one. Four months ago, Fayyad’s government was seen legitimate by 28% and Haniyeh’s by 28%.

 

(2) Peace Process   

  • 64% prefer the two-state solution over any other solution while 20% prefer the one-state solution; the rest of respondents prefers other solutions or believes no solution exists
  • 53% support and 46% oppose a mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people
  • 68% support the Saudi Initiative and 30% oppose it
  • But 68% believe the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state in the next 5 years are slim to non existent and 31% believe the chances are medium or high
  • 68% oppose and 30% support return to negotiations before the implementation of a comprehensive freeze on settlement construction including in East Jerusalem, but only 17% believe that Israel would in the future agree to such a freeze
  • In the absence of negotiations, 39% support return to armed intifada, 17% support non violent resistance, 18% support a unilateral declaration of statehood, and 16% support going to the UN Security Council
  • Palestinians have no confidence in Israel’s long term aspirations: 53% believe it seeks to annex the occupied territories and expel its population; 23% believe it seeks to annex the occupied territories while denying its population their political rights
  • As for Palestinian long term aspirations, 49% say Palestinians seek to reach a peace agreement with Israel to establish a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital, 10% say the goal is to force Israel to withdraw to the 1967 borders without a peace agreement
  • 77% are worried or very worried that they or a family member might be hurt by Israel in their daily life or that their land would be confiscated or home demolished and 23% are not worried
  • 69% say Obama’s policy is biased in favor of Israel and 3% think it is biased in favor of the Palestinians and 22% say the policy supports the two sides equally

 

A majority of 64% of the Palestinians believes that the best solution to the conflict is the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel, known as the two-state solution. 20% of the Palestinians think that the best solution is to establish one state shared by Palestinians and Israelis in all the area west to the Jordan River. Support for the two-state solution increases among supporters of the peace process (66%) compared to those opposed to the peace process (54%), among supporters of Fateh (74%) compared to supporters of Hamas (56%). Support in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip is almost identical (63% and 64% respectively). Similarly, support among men and women is almost identical (64% and 63% respectively).  Moreover, 53% of the Palestinians support and 46% oppose the proposal that after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the settlement of all issues in dispute, including the refugees and Jerusalem issues, there will be a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people. In August, 49% of the Palestinians supported this proposal, while 49% opposed it. 68% of the Palestinians support and 30% oppose the Saudi initiative which calls for Arab recognition of and normalization of relations with Israel after it ends its occupation of Arab territories occupied in 1967 and after the establishment of a Palestinian state. The plan calls for Israeli retreat from all territories occupied in 1967 including Gaza the West Bank, Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, and the establishment of a Palestinian state. The refugees' problem will be resolved through negotiation in a just and agreed upon manner and in accordance with UN resolution 194. In return, all Arab states will recognize Israel and its right to secure borders, will sign peace treaties with her and establish normal diplomatic relation. In August, 64% supported the plan while 34% opposed it.  Now, more than 40 years after the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, 68% of the Palestinians believe that the chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state next to the state of Israel in the next five years are non-existent or low. 31% believe they are medium or high. These figures are very similar to those we obtained in August.  Similarly, 67% think that it is impossible to reach these days a final status settlement with the Israelis and 32% believe it is possible.

Moreover, findings show that 68% of the Palestinians oppose and 30% support unconditional return to negotiations with Israel, as requested by the US, before Israel implements a comprehensive freeze on settlement construction that would include East Jerusalem.  But we also found that only 17% of the Palestinians believe that Israel will agree in the future to a complete freeze on settlement construction, including in East Jerusalem and 81% don’t believe this will happen. In such a case, we found Palestinians divided over what alternatives they should adopt if negotiations stopped: 39% want a return to armed intifada while 17% prefer a popular non violent resistance. The rest selected other alternatives such as a unilateral declaration of statehood (18%), turning to the UN Security Council (16%), and abandoning the two-state solution and adopting a one-state solution (6%). Support for a return to armed intifada is greater in the Gaza Strip (46%) compared to the West Bank (35%), in refugee camps (48%) compared to cities and villages (38%), among those opposed to the peace process (55%) compared to those who support the peace process (35%), and among supporters of Hamas (57%) compared to supporters of Fateh (29%).

Palestinians don’t trust Israelis long run aspirations. Only 12% of the Palestinians believe that Israel wants to guarantee its security and withdraw from all the territories occupied in 1967. 11% of the Palestinians believe that Israel wants to Guarantee its security and withdraw from part of the occupied territories. 23% believe that Israel plans the annexation of the West Bank while denying political rights of Palestinians, and 53% fear that Israel aspires to the realization of Greater Israel borders and transfer of the Palestinians.  With regard to their own long term aspirations, about half of the Palestinians (49%) believe they aspire to reach a peace agreement with Israel that would establish a state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital, 10% believe the aspiration is to force Israel to end its occupation and withdraw to the 1967 lines without a peace agreement, 16% believe the goal is to return all Palestine from the river to the sea to Arab sovereignty by force, and 23% believe the goal is to conquer the state of Israel and destroy its Jewish population.

Findings also show that 77% of the Palestinians are worried or very worried that they or members of their family could be hurt by Israel in their daily life or that their land could be confiscated or home demolished and 23% are not worried. In the Gaza Strip, 79% say they are worried and in the West Bank worry stands at 76%. Worry increases in areas like Khanyounis (90%), Tulkarm (89%), Jabalia (85%), and Jerusalem (84%).

Since the election of President Obama and following the intensified involvement of the US in the region we have been tracking in our poll Palestinians' attitudes toward the US policy in the region. Our current poll indicates that 69% of the Palestinians think that Obama’s policy is more supportive of Israel and 3% think it is more supportive of the Palestinians, and 22% think it is supportive of both sides equally. In August, 64% of Palestinians believed that Obama’s policy is more supportive of Israel; 7% thought it is more supportive of the Palestinians, and 23% thought it is supportive of both sides equally. 55% of the Palestinians believe and 39% do not believe that the US has now abandoned its demand from Israel to implement a comprehensive freeze on settlement construction.

 

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (34)
10-12 December 2009   

 

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

00 )

From among the following satellite news stations, which one you watched most during the last two months?

 

1) Al Arabia

10.5

8.6

14.2

 

2) Al Jazeera

51.6

55.8

43.5

 

3) Al Hurra

0.3

0.1

0.6

 

4) Al Manar

3.0

4.1

0.9

 

5) Palestine TV

14.4

15.4

12.4

 

6) Al-Aqsa TV

9.3

5.3

17.1

 

7) Do not watch TV

6.4

6.4

6.5

 

8) Others

3.2

3.0

3.5

 

9) Do not have a dish

1.2

1.1

1.2

 

10) No Opinion/Don’t know

0.1

0.2

0.0

 

 

 

 

 

01)

In general, how would you describe conditions of the Palestinians in the Palestinian areas in Gaza Strip these days?

 

1) Very good

1.1

0.6

1.9

 

2) Good

7.9

8.5

6.8

 

3) So so

14.8

14.8

14.8

 

4) Bad

39.8

41.7

36.1

 

5) Very bad

34.2

31.1

40.3

 

6) DK/NA

2.2

3.3

0.0

 

 

 

 

 

02)

In general, how would you describe conditions of the Palestinians in the Palestinian areas in the West Bank these days?

 

1) Very good

5.8

4.7

8.0

 

2) Good

25.0

22.9

28.9

 

3) So so

29.6

34.9

19.5

 

4) Bad

25.7

28.1

21.1

 

5) Very bad

10.1

8.9

12.5

 

6) DK/NA

3.8

0.5

10.1

 

 

 

 

 

03)

Generally, do you see yourself as:

 

1) Religious

45.7

40.1

56.4

 

2) Somewhat religious

50.4

54.4

42.7

 

3) Not religious

3.7

5.3

0.7

 

4) DK/NA

0.2

0.3

0.2

 

 

 

 

 

04)

Generally, do you see yourself as:

 

1) Supportive of the peace process

65.0

61.0

72.8

 

2) Opposed to the peace process

16.6

18.1

13.8

 

3) Between support and opposition

17.0

19.4

12.4

 

4) DK/NA

1.4

1.5

1.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

05)

Do you think that there is corruption in PA institutions under the control of President Abu Mazin?

 

1) Yes 

65.6

68.1

60.8

 

2) No 

21.1

18.9

25.4

 

3) DK/NA

13.3

13.0

13.9

 

 

 

 

 

06)

If yes, will this corruption in PA institutions under the control of President Abu Mazin increase, decrease or remain as it is in the future?

 

1) Will increase   

50.8

53.9

44.2

 

2) Will remain as it is

13.9

13.5

14.6

 

3) will decrease

26.0

22.9

32.5

 

4) DK/NA

9.3

9.6

8.7

 

 

 

 

 

07)

How would you evaluate the current status of democracy and human rights in the Palestinian Authority under Abu Mazin? Would you say it is:

 

1) Very good 

6.0

5.0

8.0

 

2) Good 

29.4

27.9

32.4

 

3) neither bad nor good

29.0

30.5

26.0

 

4) Bad

18.6

19.2

17.5

 

5) Very bad

12.4

13.2

10.9

 

6) DK/NA

4.5

4.2

5.3

 

 

 

 

 

08)

How would you evaluate the current status of democracy and human rights in the Gaza Strip under Ismail Hanyieh government? Would you say it is:

 

1) Very good 

4.4

4.2

4.9

 

2) Good 

20.9

17.6

27.2

 

3) Fair

20.3

20.1

20.8

 

4) Bad

27.0

28.5

24.2

 

5) Very bad

16.9

14.8

21.0

 

6) DK/NA

10.5

15.0

1.9

 

 

 

 

 

09)

Would you say that these days your security and safety, and that of your family, is assured or not assured?

 

1) Completely assured

9.9

6.1

17.2

 

2) Assured

53.5

56.7

47.3

 

3) Not assured  

30.7

32.5

27.3

 

4) Not assured at all 

5.7

4.5

7.9

 

5) DK/NA

0.2

0.2

0.2

 

 

 

 

 

10)

Do current political, security, and economic conditions lead you to seek emigration abroad?

 

1) Certainly seek to emigration

8.9

6.8

13.0

 

2) Seek emigration

16.8

14.6

21.0

 

3) Do not seek emigration

29.5

27.9

32.6

 

4) Certainly do not seek emigration

44.5

50.4

33.2

 

5) DK/NA

0.2

0.3

0.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

11)

Tell us how do you evaluate the performance of the dismissed government of Ismail Haniyeh in the Gaza Strip? Is it good or bad?

 

1) Very Good

9.0

7.2

12.7

 

2) Good

24.9

22.6

29.3

 

3) Neither good nor bad

24.0

23.2

25.6

 

4) Bad

20.5

22.4

16.8

 

5) Very Bad

10.1

7.7

14.6

 

6) No Opinion/Don’t know

11.5

16.9

1.0

 

 

 

 

 

12)

Tell us how do you evaluate the performance of the government headed by Salam Fayyad ? Is it good or bad?

 

1) Very Good

6.7

6.3

7.5

 

2) Good

33.2

35.4

28.9

 

3) Neither good nor bad

26.5

27.0

25.5

 

4) Bad

18.3

16.2

22.4

 

5) Very Bad

6.5

5.5

8.4

 

6) No Opinion/Don’t know

8.8

9.6

7.4

 

 

 

 

 

13)

Are you satisfied or not satisfied with the performance of Mahmud Abbas since his election as president of the PA?

 

1) Very satisfied

6.6

4.6

10.3

 

2) Satisfied

41.4

43.3

37.8

 

3) Not satisfied 

34.3

35.0

33.0

 

4) not satisfied at all

15.0

13.6

17.7

 

5) DK/NA

2.7

3.5

1.3

 

 

 

 

 

14)

If new presidential elections are to take place today, and Mahmud Abbas was nominated by Fateh and Ismail Haniyeh was nominated by Hamas, whom would you vote for?

 

1) Mahmud Abbas

53.8

55.2

51.6

 

2) Ismail Haniyeh

38.3

35.7

42.9

 

3 DK/NA

7.8

9.2

5.5

 

 

 

 

 

15)

And if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti representing Fateh and Ismail Haniyeh representing Hamas, whom would you vote for?

 

1) Marwan Barghouti

67.0

69.6

62.3

 

2) Ismail Haniyeh

28.0

24.7

33.9

 

3) No Opinion/ Don’t know

5.0

5.6

3.8

 

 

 

 

 

16)

If you were to select a vice president, whom would you select from among the following list of candidates?

 

1) Ismail Haniyeh

17.7

15.8

21.4

 

2) Salam Fayyad

12.6

13.2

11.3

 

3) Marwan Barghouti

30.4

31.0

29.4

 

4) Mustafa Barghouti

12.6

12.8

12.1

 

5) Saeb Erekat

6.9

5.9

8.9

 

6) Others (specify: ------------ )

4.8

5.9

2.9

 

7) DK/NA

14.9

15.4

14.0

 

 

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

18)

 

If new elections agreed to by all factions are held today and the same lists that took part in the last PLC elections were nominated, for whom would you vote?

 

1) alternative

3.1

3.5

2.3

 

2) independent Palestine

5.0

6.5

2.2

 

3) Abu Ali Mustafa

3.0

2.0

4.7

 

4) Abu al Abbas

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

5) freedom and social justice

0.3

0.4

0.0

 

6) change and reform

26.6

22.9

33.7

 

7) national coalition for justice and democracy

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

8) third way

1.9

2.8

0.0

 

9) freedom and independence

0.6

0.8

0.0

 

10) Palestinian justice

0.3

0.5

0.0

 

11) Fateh

42.5

40.9

45.6

 

12) none of the above/ DK/NA

16.9

19.7

11.4

 

 

 

 

 

19)

After the separation between Gaza and the West Bank, Hamas and the government of Ismail Haniyeh remained in power in Gaza and considered itself the legitimate government while president Abu Mazin formed a new government headed by Salam Fayyad followed by a new government headed by Fayyad and it too considered itself legitimate. What about you, which of the two government you consider legitimate, the government of Haniyeh or the government of Abu Mazin and Fayyad?

 

1) Haniyehs’ government is the legitimate one

26.3

23.7

31.4

 

2) Abu Mazin’s and Fayyad government is the legitimate one

29.7

29.8

29.4

 

3) Both governments are legitimate

11.0

13.2

6.9

 

4) Both governments are not legitimate

27.5

26.7

29.0

 

5) DK/NA

5.5

6.6

3.3

 

 

 

 

 

20)

From among the following three Palestinian priorities, which in your opinion is the most important one today?

 

1) Gaza reconstruction

16.4

16.6

15.9

 

2) reconciliation and reunification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip

60.7

66.1

50.2

 

3) opening of Gaza crossings with Egypt and Israel

22.1

16.2

33.6

 

4) DK/NA

0.8

1.1

0.3

21)

To what extent are you worried or not worried that you or a member of your family could be hurt in your daily life by other Palestinians such as those affiliated with Fateh or Hamas?

 

1)Very Worried

12.1

9.7

16.8

 

2)Worried

31.7

32.2

30.8

 

3)Not worried

39.4

40.8

36.9

 

3)Not worried at all

16.1

16.7

15.1

 

4)DK/NA

0.6

0.6

0.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

22)

To what extent are you worried or not worried that you or a member of your family could be hurt by Israel in your daily life or that your land would be confiscated or home demolished?

 

1)Very Worried

37.7

33.9

45.0

 

2)Worried

39.4

42.0

34.3

 

3)Not worried

17.6

18.6

15.7

 

4)Not worried at all

5.2

5.4

4.8

 

5)DK/NA

0.2

0.2

0.2

 

 

23)

Given the failure of the dialogue between Fateh and Hamas, what are your expectations for the future of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip?

 

1) unity will resume in the near future

16.3

14.7

19.5

 

2) unity will resume but will take a long time

48.3

48.4

48.2

 

3) unity will not resume and two separate entities will emerge

32.1

33.9

28.5

 

4) DK/NA

3.3

3.0

3.8

 

24

Mahmud Abbas’s term as president of the Palestinian Authority ends in January 2010, if no new presidential elections take place on that date, does he lose or does not lose his legitimacy as president of the PA?

 

1) certainly loses legitimacy

18.9

16.1

24.2

 

2) loses legitimacy

38.3

38.8

37.3

 

3) does not lose legitimacy

30.0

33.3

23.7

 

4) Certainly does not  lose legitimacy

5.3

4.0

7.9

 

5) DK/NA

7.4

7.7

6.9

 

 

25

Similarly, the Palestinian Legislative Council’s term ends in January 2010, if no new legislative elections take place on that date, does it lose or does not lose its legitimacy?

 

1) certainly loses legitimacy

14.5

13.0

17.3

 

2) loses legitimacy

42.4

41.5

44.2

 

3) does not lose legitimacy

30.5

33.1

25.5

 

4) Certainly does not  lose legitimacy

4.2

3.5

5.7

 

5) DK/NA

8.4

8.9

7.4

 

 

 

 

 

26)

In your view, who is responsible for the continued split in the PA between the West Bank and the West Bank, Hamas or Fateh

 

1) Hamas

16.9

13.9

22.8

 

2) Fateh

12.0

11.8

12.5

 

3) both

61.1

61.2

60.9

 

4) Neither

4.1

4.8

2.7

 

5) other

3.3

4.6

0.8

 

6) DK/NA

2.5

3.7

0.4

 

 

 

 

 

27)

The Palestinian Election Commission announced that it can not conduct elections on the constitutional date of January 2010; who in your view is responsible for preventing the holding of elections on time?

 

1) Fateh

10.9

11.2

10.5

 

2) Hamas

25.3

18.7

37.8

 

3) the election commission

9.0

9.7

7.5

 

4) Israel

30.3

35.0

21.4

 

5) Other

14.8

14.2

16.1

 

6) DK/NA

9.7

11.2

6.7

28)

President Abbas announced his decision not to run in the next presidential elections. Do you support or oppose his decision?

 

1) certainly support

16.6

15.3

19.1

 

2) support

40.2

42.7

35.4

 

3) oppose

29.1

28.2

31.0

 

4) certainly oppose

7.3

6.1

9.7

 

5) DK/NA

6.7

7.7

4.9

 

 

 

 

 

29)

In your view, which of the following is the first and most important reason that led president Abbas to make his decision not to run in the next presidential elections?

 

1) because Israel refused to freeze settlement construction and because he lost confidence in the US and the peace process

32.5

33.5

30.5

 

2) because of criticism from Fateh and Hamas and others over the postponement of the vote on the Goldstone report

21.9

20.5

24.6

 

3) because Hamas refused to sign the reconciliation agreement

11.7

9.0

16.7

 

4) because of his disappointment with Arab support for him and for his policies

25.6

26.8

23.3

 

5) other

4.0

4.9

2.1

 

6) DK/NA

4.4

5.3

2.8

 

 

 

 

 

30)

And what is the second most important reason for Abbas’s decision?

 

1) because Israel refused to freeze settlement construction and because he lost confidence in the US and the peace process

20.9

21.9

19.0

 

2) because of criticism from Fateh and Hamas and others over the postponement of the vote on the Goldstone report

22.9

21.0

26.4

 

3) because Hamas refused to sign the reconciliation agreement

18.4

16.8

21.3

 

4) because of his disappointment with Arab support for him and for his policies

27.3

26.9

28.2

 

5) other

3.5

4.8

1.2

 

6) DK/NA

7.1

8.7

4.0

 

 

31)

In your view, will president Abbas reverse his decision not to run or will he insist on it and may be even resign as president of the PA?

 

1) will reverse his decision and will run in the next elections

58.4

60.7

54.0

 

2) will not reverse his decision and may be resign

20.9

18.1

26.3

 

3) will not reverse his decision but will not resign

12.2

12.0

12.6

 

4) other

0.5

0.8

0.0

  5) DK/NA

8.1

8.5

7.1

 

 

     

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

32)

Hamas said that it will not allow elections in the Gaza Strip before an agreement is reached on reconciliation. Do you support or oppose this Hamas position?

 

1) certainly support

26.2

23.6

31.4

 

2) support

31.9

36.6

22.8

 

3) oppose

32.6

31.2

35.4

 

4) certainly oppose

6.4

4.9

9.3

 

5) DK/NA

2.9

3.8

1.1

 

 

 

 

 

33)

If you oppose Hamas’s position, would you support the holding of elections despite Hamas’s opposition even if elections are held in the West Bank only?

 

1) oppose holding elections as long as Hamas oppose the elections

33.8

30.0

40.1

 

2) support holding elections despite Hamas opposition even if in the West Bank only

54.1

56.6

50.2

 

3) DK/NA

12.0

13.4

9.7

 

34)

If Hamas wins next legislative and president elections, will this in your view lead to the lifting or to tightening of the international boycott of the Palestinian government?

 

1) will lead to the lifting of the boycott

11.4

10.5

13.2

 

2) will lead to the tightening of the boycott

65.0

64.1

66.8

 

3) conditions will stay as they are today

20.6

21.9

18.0

 

4) DK/NA

3.0

3.5

2.0

 

 

 

 

 

35)

And what about the unity between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip? Will a Hamas victory in the next legislative and presidential elections lead to consolidation of unity between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip or will it lead to consolidating the split between the two areas?

 

1) will lead to consolidation of WBGS unity

19.3

19.4

19.0

 

2) will lead to consolidation of WBGS split

48.0

46.1

51.7

 

3) conditions of WBGS will stay as they are today

28.7

29.9

26.3

 

4) DK/NA

4.0

4.5

2.9

 

 

 

 

 

36)

And what if Fateh wins new legislative and president elections, will this in your view lead to the lifting or to tightening of the international boycott of the Palestinian government?

 

1) will lead to the lifting of the boycott

55.0

43.4

77.2

 

2) will lead to the tightening of the boycott

10.1

12.0

6.3

 

3) conditions will stay as they are today

30.9

40.0

13.3

 

4) DK/NA

4.1

4.6

3.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

37)

And what about the unity between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip? Will a Fateh victory in the next legislative and presidential elections lead to consolidation of unity between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip or will it lead to consolidating the split between the two areas?

 

1) will lead to consolidation of WBGS unity

33.6

26.8

46.9

 

2) will lead to consolidation of WBGS split

27.1

26.1

29.0

 

3) conditions of WBGS will stay as they are today

35.0

43.0

19.7

 

4) DK/NA

4.2

4.1

4.4

 

 

 

 

 

38)

There is a proposal that after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the settlemnet of all issues in dispute, including the refugees and Jerusalem issues, there will be a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinians people. Do you agree or disagree to this proposal?

 

1) Definitely agree

10.0

9.4

11.1

 

2) agree

42.7

45.6

37.1

 

3) disagree

30.0

29.8

30.3

 

4) definitely disagree

15.8

13.3

20.6

 

5) DK/NA

1.6

1.9

1.0

 

 

 

 

 

39)

And what is the Palestinian majority opinion on this issue? Do most Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza support or oppose the recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people at the end of the peace process?

 

1) Majority supports

51.9

53.8

48.2

 

2) Majority opposes

40.6

37.7

46.2

 

3) DK/NA

7.4

8.4

5.5

 

 

 

 

 

40)

And what is the Israeli majority opinion on this issue? Do most Israelis support or oppose the recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people at the end of the peace process?

 

1) Majority supports

34.6

34.1

35.6

 

2) Majority opposes

57.2

58.1

55.5

 

3) DK/NA

8.2

7.8

8.9

 

 

 

 

 

41)

Now more than 40 years after the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, what in your view are the chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state next to the state of Israel in the next five years? Are they high, medium, low, or none existent?

 

1) None existent

27.2

25.6

30.3

 

2) Low

40.6

42.7

36.6

 

3) Medium

25.3

23.8

28.3

 

4) High

5.5

6.4

3.7

 

5) DK/NA

1.3

1.5

1.1

 

 

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

42)

According to the Saudi plan, Israel will retreat from all territories occupied in 1967 including Gaza the West Bank, Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, and a Palestinian state will be established. The refugees problem will be resolved through negotiation in a just and agreed upon manner and in accordance with UN resolution 194 which allows return of refugees to Israel and compensation. In return, all Arab states will recognize Israel and its right to secure borders, will sign peace treaties with her and establish normal diplomatic relations.  Do you agree or disagree to this plan?

 

1) Certainly agree

10.9

9.3

14.0

 

2) agree

56.6

58.0

54.1

 

3) disagree

22.2

23.7

19.5

 

4) Certainly disagree

7.5

5.4

11.6

 

5) DK/NA

2.7

3.6

0.8

43)

What do you expect to happen between Palestinians and Israelis now after Israel agreed to limited freeze in the West Bank that does not apply to East Jerusalem and after President Abbas announced his decision not to run in the next elections?

 

1) Negotiations will resume soon enough and armed confrontations will stop

19.1

19.3

18.7

 

2) Negotiations will resume but some armed attacks will continue

36.8

35.5

39.2

 

3) Armed confrontations will not stop and the two sides will not return to negotiations

37.6

38.1

36.6

 

4) DK/NA

6.5

7.1

5.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

44)

Some people think that a solution based on the establishment of a Palestinian state along side Israel, known as the two-state solution, is difficult to achieve and that Palestinians should struggle for another solution, one in which Israel is unified with the West Bank and the Gaza Strip to establish one state whereby Palestinian Arabs and Israeli Jews would be equal. In your view, which of the two solutions is more difficult to achieve?

 

1) two-state solution

30.9

29.8

32.9

 

2) the one-state solution (one state for Jews and Palestinians)

32.1

32.0

32.3

 

3) both equally difficult

34.5

35.7

32.2

 

4) DK/NA

2.5

2.5

2.6

 

 

 

 

 

45)

Regardless of its difficulty, which of the two solutions do you support?

 

1) two-state solution

63.5

63.4

63.7

 

2) the one-state solution (one state for Jews and Palestinians)

20.0

21.5

17.2

 

3) another solution

3.5

3.7

3.1

 

4) none of the above

7.7

6.3

10.3

 

5) there is no solution to the conflict

2.0

2.1

1.8

 

6) DK/NA

 

 

46)

What do you think are the aspirations of Israel for the long run?

 

1)Withdrawal from the territories it occupied in 1967 after guaranteeing its security

11.7

10.8

13.3

 

2)Withdrawal form part of the occupied territories after guaranteeing its security

11.3

11.5

10.8

 

3) Annexation of the West Bank while denying political rights of Palestinian citizens

22.6

22.2

23.4

 

4) Extending the borders of the state of Israel to cover all the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and expelling its Arab citizens 

53.3

54.3

51.3

 

5)DK/NA

1.2

1.2

1.2

 

 

47)

And what do you think are the aspirations of the Palestinian side for the long run?

 

1) Reach peace agreement with Israel that would establish a state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital and resolve the refugee problem

48.9

55.8

35.7

 

2) Force Israel to end its occupation and withdraw to the 1967 lines by force and without a peace agreement

10.2

8.4

13.7

 

3) Return all Palestine from the river to the sea to Arab sovereignty by force

16.3

13.3

22.1

 

4) Conquer the state of Israel and destroy its Jewish population

22.6

19.8

27.9

 

5) DK/NA

1.9

2.6

0.5

 

 

 

 

 

48)

And generally speaking is it possible or impossible to reach these days a final status settlement with Israel?

 

1) Definitely possible

3.0

3.1

2.8

 

2) Think it is possible

29.3

27.9

31.9

 

3) Think it is impossible

43.1

41.8

45.6

 

4) definitely impossible

23.4

26.1

18.4

 

5) DK/NA

1.2

1.1

1.3

 

 

 

 

 

49)

Concerning armed attacks against Israeli civilians inside Israel, I….

 

1) Strongly support

12.5

8.0

21.0

 

2) Support

30.5

27.4

36.4

 

3) Oppose

45.7

51.5

34.6

 

4) Strongly oppose

9.3

10.2

7.6

 

5) DK/NA

2.0

2.9

0.3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

50)

Israel has refused to implement a comprehensive freeze on settlement construction and agreed to a limited freeze that does not include East Jerusalem and the US has requested from the Palestinians to return to permanent status negotiations without any pre conditions. Do you support or oppose return to negotiations under the present conditions?

 

1) certainly support

3.0

2.6

3.8

 

2) support

27.4

29.9

22.6

 

3) oppose

54.0

54.8

52.5

 

4) certainly oppose

14.2

10.6

20.9

 

5) DK/NA

1.5

2.1

0.2

 

 

 

 

 

51)

Do you think that Israel will eventually agree to a comprehensive freeze on settlement construction including in East Jerusalem?

 

1) Certainly will agree

1.8

0.4

4.5

 

2) will agree

15.0

11.3

22.1

 

3) will not agree

61.0

64.1

55.1

 

4) Certainly will not agree

20.4

22.3

16.7

 

5) DK/NA

1.8

1.9

1.7

 

 

 

 

 

52)

If peace negotiations stop, what, in your opinion, is the most important option available to Palestinians to secure their rights?

 

1) go the UN Security Council

15.9

15.4

16.8

 

2) unilaterally declare a Palestinian state

18.1

19.7

15.2

 

3) return to armed intifada and confrontations

39.1

35.4

46.3

 

4) abandon the two-state solution and demand the establishment of one state for Israelis and Palestinians

6.2

6.5

5.7

 

5) resort to popular non violent and unarmed resistance

17.3

18.1

15.7

 

6) Other

3.3

4.9

0.3

53)

In your view, did the US abandon or did not abandon its demand from Israel to implement a comprehensive freeze on settlement construction?

 

1) certainly abandoned it

16.3

14.6

19.6

 

2) abandoned it

39.0

39.4

38.4

 

3) did not abandon it

34.5

35.0

33.5

 

4) certainly did not abandon it

4.6

4.8

4.1

 

5) DK/NA

5.6

6.2

4.4

 

 

 

 

 

54)

Now after about one year since he became president, how do you view the policy of President Obama? Do you see it supportive of the Palestinians, the Israelis or both?

 

1) supportive of Israel

69.3

64.7

78.1

 

2) supportive of the Palestinians

2.8

3.2

2.2

 

3) supportive of both sides

22.1

25.6

15.6

 

4) DK/NA

5.7

6.5

4.1

 

 

 

 

 

55)

Which of the following political parties do you support?

 

1) PPP

1.3

1.9

0.1

 

2) PFLP

2.8

2.2

3.9

 

3) Fateh

32.9

33.1

32.5

 

4) Hamas

20.8

17.8

26.6

 

5) DFLP

0.7

0.9

0.3

 

6) Islamic Jihad

1.0

0.6

1.6

 

7) Fida

0.1

0.0

0.3

 

8) National Initiative (Mubadara)