PSR - Survey Research Unit: Poll No. 35 - Press Release


PSR poll No. 35 - full analysis

23 March 2010

 

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (35)

 

While a majority of Palestinians supports holding local elections and while a majority supports the two-state solution, an overwhelming majority opposes the proximity talks in the absence of a settlement freeze in East Jerusalem and the popularity and legitimacy of the president weaken in light of corruption reports and in light of the ending of his electoral term

 

4-6 March 2010   

 

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 4 and 6 March 2010. The poll was conducted after the PA announcement regarding the holding of local elections in July 2010, the leveling of corruption charges against senior PA officials by a former Palestinian intelligence official, publication of reports about the Egyptian construction of an underground iron barrier along the Egyptian borders with Rafah, and reports of an American proposal to conduct proximity talks between Israel and the Palestinians.  Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

 

 

Table of contents:

 

 

 

Main Findings:

 

Findings of the first quarter of 2010 show a limited setback for president Abbas and his Prime Minister Salam Fayyad and a limited improvement in the standing of Ismail Haniyeh and Hamas. The change might have been caused by the end of the electoral term of the president and by press reports that revealed cases of corruption and scandals inside the PA. These reports have been seen, and most importantly have been seen as credible, by a majority of Palestinians. Despite this setback for the PA and Abbas, a majority of Palestinians, particularly in the West Bank, supports the holding of local elections even before reconciliation and even if Hamas boycotts the elections. Findings also show that the top most important Palestinian priority today is the reunification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. This finding serves Fateh’s interests very well as a large percentage of Palestinians believe that while a Fateh electoral victory would strengthen the chances for reunifications, a large percentage believes that a Hamas victory would consolidate separation.

 

Findings also indicate widespread opposition to the American proposal to conduct Palestinian-Israeli proximity talks with US mediation but without a freeze on settlement construction in East Jerusalem. But the opposition to the resumption of peace talks does not mean an opposition to a peace settlement based on a two-state solution. A majority does indeed support the Arab Peace Initiative and prefers the two-state solution over other solutions such as a one state solution or one based on a Palestinian-Israeli confederation. Moreover, half of the public supports mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people. But findings show a strong pessimistic tendency with regard to the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state next to the state of Israel during the next five years. Moreover, the overwhelming majority believes that Israel’s long term goal is to annex the occupied Palestinian territories and to expel its Palestinian population or deny them their political rights. A similar large majority expresses worry that it or family members would be hurt by Israelis in their daily life or that their land would be confiscated or homes demolished. Increased Palestinian perception of threat leads in this poll to an increase in the support for armed attacks against Israelis despite the fact that a majority is still opposed to it.

 

(1) Domestic Palestinian Conditions

  •  A majority of 54% supports the holding of local elections in the West Bank even without reconciliation between Fateh and Hamas and even if Hamas decides to boycott the elections.
  • A majority believes that recent reports about corruption are accurate and 50% do not trust the committee established by PA president to investigate the case of an alleged corruption and a video tape involving the director of his office and the role allegedly played by the Palestinian Intelligence Department in the matter; three quarters do not want to see a PA security service involved in such activity. 
  • If new presidential elections took place today, Abbas would receive 50% and Ismail Haniyeh 40%. But if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, the former receives 63% and the latter 32%.
  • If new parliamentary elections in which all factions participate were to take place today, Fateh receives 42%, Hamas 28%, all other lists combined 11%, and 19% say they are undecided
  • 11% say conditions in the Gaza Strip are good or very good while 31% say conditions in the West Bank are good or very good; but perception of personal and family safety and security stands at 70% in the Gaza Strip compared to 55% in the West Bank
  • Performance of the Haniyeh’s government is seen as good or very good by 39% and performance of Fayyad’s government is seen as good or very good by 42%; 47% are satisfied with the performance of Abbas and 50% are not satisfied
  • The top priority for Palestinians is the unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip followed by ending Gaza siege and opening its crossings
  • 15% believe that unity between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip will soon be restored, 31% believe separation is permanent and 47% believe that unity will be restored but only after a long time

 

Findings show readiness in the West Bank for the resumption of the electoral process while the Gaza Strip remains opposed to elections: 54% support and 41% oppose the holding of local elections in the West Bank next July even if reconciliation talks have not succeeded by then to unify the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. Support for holding local elections is higher in the West Bank, reaching 60%, and lower in the Gaza Strip, standing at 46%. If local elections were held in the West Bank on the stated date of July 2010, a majority of the West Bankers (53%) would participate even if Hamas boycotts the elections and even if reconciliation was not achieved by that date. 43% of the West Bankers say they will not participate in the local elections.  Respondents in Gaza were not asked about participation in the local elections.

 

Support for holding local elections increases in rural areas (63%) compared to cities (53%) and refugee camps (52%). It also increases among men (56%) compared to women (52%), among the somewhat religious (59%) compared to the religious (48%), among supporters of the peace process (60%) compared to those opposed to the peace process (36%), among holders of BA degree (57%) compared to illiterates (43%), among employees (61%) compared to housewives (51%), among those working in the public sector (72%) compared to those working in the private sector (53%), among those who intend to vote for Fateh (78%) and the undecided (59%) compared to those who intend to vote for Hamas (31%) and for third parties (48%), and among those less than 40 years of age (58%) compared to those over 40 (48%).

 

But if support for holding elections is an indication of PA legitimacy, findings show an indicator in the opposite direction: corruption. Findings show that 72% have heard about reports of scandals and charges of corruption in the Palestinian Authority or saw a video tape mentioned in those reports and more than two thirds of them (69%) believe those reports and charges to be accurate while 24% do not. In this regard, only 41% have confidence and 50% do not have confidence in the investigation committee established by the PA president to examine these reports of scandals and charges of corruption. Moreover, 50% say they believe and 38% say they do not believe that the PA Intelligence Department was behind the filming of the video tape mentioned in the reports and charges of corruption. About three quarters (74%) reject or strongly reject allowing PA security services to photograph or film Palestinians in embarrassing situations, as the case may have been in the video tape mentioned in the reports and 22% accept such a role for the security services.

 

The percentage of those who reject or strongly reject allowing PA security services to engage in such activity increases in the Gaza Strip (77%) compared to the West Bank (73%), among women (77%) compared to men (71%), among supporters of the peace process (77%) compared to those opposed to the peace process (64%), among those working in the public sector (80%) compared to those working in the private sector (72%), and among supporters of Fateh (82%) and third parties (84%) compared to supporters of Hamas (66%).

If new presidential elections are held today, Abbas would receive the vote of 50% of the voters (compared to 54% last December) and Haniyeh would receive 40% (compared to 38% last December). But if the presidential elections were between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, the former would receive 63% (compared to 67% last December) and the latter would receive 32% (compared to 28% last December). Most popular figures selected by the public as a possible vice president are Marwan Barghouti (selected by 30% of the public), Ismail Haniyeh (19%), Salam Fayyad (14%) Mustafa Barghouti (11%), and Saeb Erekat (5%).  If new legislative elections are held today with the participation of all factions, 72% say they would participate in such elections. Of those who would participate, 42% say they would vote for Fateh and 28% say they would vote for Hamas, 11% would vote for all other third parties combined, and 19% are undecided. Three months ago Fateh received 43%, Hamas 27%, third parties combined 14%, and the undecided stood at 17%.

 

11% say conditions in the Gaza Strip are good or very good and 73% say conditions are bad or very bad. By contrast, 31% say conditions in the West Bank are good or very good and 36% say they are bad or very bad. Similarly, 30% say conditions of democracy and human rights under the Hamas government in the Gaza Strip are good or very good. By contrast, 37% say these conditions in the PA under president Abbas are good or very good. 61% say their security and safety and that of their families are assured. In the West Bank, perception of personal and family safety and security stands at 55% and in the Gaza Strip, perception of safety and security stands today at 70%. Despite the difference in the evaluation of condition in the West Bank compared to the Gaza Strip, evaluation of the performance of the governments of Haniyeh and Fayyad does not seem to reflect it. Positive evaluation of the performance of the Haniyeh government reaches 39% and positive evaluation of the performance of Salam Fayyad’s government stands at 42%. In the Gaza Strip, 44% say the performance of Haniyeh’s government is good or very good while only 36% of West Bankers say the same. Positive evaluation of the Fayyad government reaches 40% in the Gaza Strip and 43% in the West Bank. 47% are satisfied with the performance of president Abbas and 50% are not satisfied. Moreover, 28% believe that Haniyeh’s government is the legitimate one and only 26% say that Abu Mazin’s and Fayyad’s government is the legitimate one, and 31% say both governments are illegitimate. Three months ago, 26% said Haniyeh’s government was the legitimate one and 30% said Fayyad’s government was the legitimate one. Moreover, 53% say PA president Abbas has lost his legitimacy when his term ended and 41% disagree with that. Similarly, 53% say the Palestinian Legislative Council has lost its legitimacy after its term ended and 39% disagree with that.

 

The largest percentage (59%) views the unification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip as the top most important Palestinian priority today, 24% believe the top priority is the opening of border crossings, and 17% believe the top priority is the rebuilding of the Gaza Strip. In this regard, if Hamas wins the next elections, 61% say such outcome would lead to the consolidation of the siege and international boycott while 12% say it would lead to the lifting of the siege and boycott. But if Fateh wins the next elections, only 9% say such outcome would lead to the consolidation of the siege while 57% say it would lead to the lifting of the siege.  Moreover, if Hamas wins the next elections, such outcome would lead to the consolidation of the separation between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip in the eyes of 46% of the public while only 19% believe it would lead to consolidation of unity. But if Fateh wins the next elections, only 27% believe this would consolidate separation and 32% believe it would strengthen unity.

 

31% say unity between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip will not be restored and two separate entities will develop while only 15% say unity will be reestablished soon. But the largest percentage (47%) says unity will eventually be restored but after a long time. In this regard, only 14% say Hams is responsible for the split and 12% say Fateh is responsible. Almost two thirds (64%) say both are responsible for the continued split. Moreover, findings show that 24% of the public believes that Hamas is responsible for the failure to hold elections on time and 12% believe Fateh is the one responsible for that. But the largest percentage, 31%, blames Israel. 

 

 

(2) Iron underground wall on borders with Egypt

  • 35% believe that Egypt’s goal from building its underground iron wall on its borders with Rafah is to pressure Hamas to sign the reconciliation paper while 28% believe the goal to be the protection of Egypt’s security against smugglers; but 31% believe the goal is to contribute to the siege on the Gaza Strip
  • Gazans are less  likely than West Bankers to suspect the motivation of Egypt in building the underground wall

 

The Gaza Strip differs from the West Bank in its evaluation of the function of the underground iron barrier being built by Egypt on its Rafah borders. Gazans are more likely than West Bankers to show understanding of Egypt’s goals. Findings show that the public is split on its views regarding Egypt’s goal: 35% believe the aim is to pressure Hamas to sign the reconciliation declaration (43% in the Gaza Strip and 30% in the West Bank), 31% believe the aim is to contribute to the siege of the Gaza Strip (25% in the Gaza Strip and 35% in the West Bank), and 28% believe the aim is to protect the security of Egypt from smugglers (29% in the Gaza Strip and 27% in the West Bank).

 

Percentage of those who believe the goal behind the underground barrier is to contribute to the siege increases among men (33%) compared to women (29%), among the religious (35%) compared to the somewhat religious (27%), among those opposed to the peace process (46%) compared to supporters of the peace process (26%), among the illiterates (33%) compared to the holders of BA degree (24%), among those who work in the private sector (35%) compared to those who work in the public sector (26%), among those whose age is over 50 years (43%) compared to those whose age is between 18-22 years (32%), and among supporters of Hamas (40%) and third parties (39%) compared to supporters of Fateh (20%).

 

(3) Peace Process   

  • In the absence of an Israeli freeze on settlement construction in East Jerusalem, only 26% support, and 73% oppose, Palestinian participation in the US proposed proximity talks
  • 60% support and 37% oppose the Arab Peace Initiative
  • 57% prefer a two-state solution while 29% prefer a one state solution and 26% prefer a Palestinian-Israeli confederation
  • 50% support and 49% oppose a mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people after a peace agreement has been reached
  • But 71% believe that chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state in the next five years are slim or non existent and 28% believe the chances are medium or high
  • Palestinians have no confidence in Israel’s long term aspirations: 63% believe it seeks to annex the occupied territories and expel its population; 18% believe it seeks to annex the occupied territories while denying its population their political rights; 16% believe it seeks to withdraw from the occupied Arab territories or part of it after guaranteeing its security
  • 77% are worried or very worried that they or a family member might be hurt by Israel in their daily life or that their land would be confiscated or home demolished
  • Support for armed attacks against Israelis stands at 47% and opposition at 50%

 

Findings show widespread opposition, reaching 73%, to return to negotiations with Israel as long as settlement construction continues in East Jerusalem, even if talks are indirect as the US proposed proximity talks. Support for the proximity talks in the absence of a settlement freeze in East Jerusalem stands at 26%. Opposition for the proximity talks increases among those opposed to the peace process (91%) compared to those who support the peace process (66%), among those whose age is over 40% (75%) compared to those whose age is between 18-22 years (66%), among supporters of Hamas (87%) compared to supporters of Fateh (59%).

 

Opposition to the proximity talks does not mean an opposition to a peace settlement based on a two-state solution. Findings show that 60% support and 37% oppose the Arab Peace Initiative calling for a two-state solution and for normalization of relations between Israel and all Arab countries after the Israeli withdrawal to the lines of June 1967. Moreover, a majority prefers the two-state solution over other solutions such as the one state solution or the one based on a Palestinian-Israeli confederation. Support for the two state solution stands at 57% while support for the one state solution stands at 29% and support for a Palestinian-Israeli confederation stands at 26%. Findings also show that 50% support and 49% oppose mutual recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people after the settlement of all issues of the conflict and the establishment of a Palestinian state.

 

Preference for the two-state solution is higher in the West Bank (59%) compared to the Gaza Strip (54%), among men (60%) compared to women (55%), among the somewhat religious (60%) compared to the religious (53%), among supporters of the peace process (66%) compared to those opposed to the peace process (33%), among employees (65%) and merchants (67%) compared to students (40%), among those who work in the public sector (67%) compared to those who work in the private sector (59%), among those over 50 years old (68%) compared to those between 18-22 years of age (44%), and among supporters of Fateh (73%) and third parties (62%) compared to supporters of Hamas (38%).

 

Despite the majority support for the two-state solution, the overwhelming majority (71%) believes the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state next to the state of Israel in the next five years are slim or non existent while 28% believe the chances are medium or high. Moreover, the overwhelming majority (81%) believes that Israel’s long term aspiration is to annex Palestinian territories and expel the Palestinian population (as 63% believe) or annex the territories to Israel and deny Palestinians their political rights (as 18% believe). Percentage of those who believe that Israel’s aspiration is to annex the Palestinian territories and expel the population or deny them their rights stood at 76% in our last poll three months ago. The percentage of those who believe that Israel seeks to guarantee its security and withdraw from the territories or from part of it stands at 16%. Furthermore, findings show that the overwhelming majority (77%) is worried or very worried that it or members of its family might be hurt by Israel in their daily life or that their land might be confiscated or home demolished by Israel. Only 23% say they are not worried or not worried at all.

Finally, findings show a noticeable increase in the percentage of those who support armed attacks against Israelis inside Israel, standing today at 47% compared to 43% in our previous poll conducted about three months ago.

 

PSR Poll No. 35

March 2010

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

00 )

From among the following satellite news stations, which one you watched most during the last two months?

 

1) Al Arabia

12.0

11.1

13.4

 

2) Al Jazeera

53.7

59.3

44.4

 

3) Al Hurra

0.2

0.0

0.5

 

4) Al Manar

3.3

4.2

1.7

 

5) Palestine TV

9.3

8.0

11.4

 

6) Al-Aqsa TV

9.8

5.1

17.3

 

7) Do not watch TV

7.7

6.8

9.3

 

8) Others

3.1

4.3

1.1

 

9) Do not have a dish

0.6

0.9

0.0

 

10) No Opinion/Don’t know

0.5

0.3

0.9

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

01)

In general, how would you describe conditions of the Palestinians in the Palestinian areas in Gaza Strip these days?

 

1) Very good

2.0

2.2

1.6

 

2) Good

8.9

7.9

10.5

 

3) So so

13.5

12.3

15.5

 

4) Bad

40.1

44.3

33.2

 

5) Very bad

33.1

29.3

39.2

 

6) DK/NA

2.4

3.9

0.0

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

02)

In general, how would you describe conditions of the Palestinians in the Palestinian areas in the West Bank these days?

 

1) Very good

6.9

5.0

10.2

 

2) Good

23.9

21.7

27.6

 

3) So so

28.9

33.8

20.9

 

4) Bad

26.1

30.1

19.5

 

5) Very bad

9.7

9.3

10.4

 

6) DK/NA

4.4

0.2

11.3

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

03)

Generally, do you see yourself as:

 

1) Religious

45.8

40.5

54.5

 

2) Somewhat religious

51.3

55.9

43.8

 

3) Not religious

2.9

3.7

1.6

 

4) DK/NA

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

 

 

 

 

04)

Generally, do you see yourself as:

 

1) Supportive of the peace process

67.3

62.6

75.0

 

2) Opposed to the peace process

17.2

18.2

15.5

 

3) Between support and opposition

13.6

16.5

8.8

 

4) DK/NA

1.9

2.7

0.7

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

05)

Do you think that there is corruption in PA institutions under the control of President Abu Mazin?

 

1) Yes 

68.3

68.7

67.5

 

2) No 

17.6

15.6

21.0

 

3) DK/NA

14.1

15.6

11.5

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

06)

If yes, will this corruption in PA institutions under the control of President Abu Mazin increase, decrease or remain as it is in the future?

 

1) Will increase   

46.8

54.4

34.1

 

2) Will remain as it is

17.6

16.4

19.7

 

3) will decrease

27.6

22.2

36.6

 

4) DK/NA

8.0

7.1

9.7

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

07)

How would you evaluate the current status of democracy and human rights in the Palestinian Authority under Abu Mazin? Would you say it is:

 

1) Very good 

6.1

4.2

9.1

 

2) Good 

30.7

28.3

34.6

 

3) neither bad nor good

28.0

29.5

25.6

 

4) Bad

19.8

21.2

17.4

 

5) Very bad

11.9

13.4

9.4

 

6) DK/NA

3.5

3.4

3.8

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

08)

How would you evaluate the current status of democracy and human rights in the Gaza Strip under Ismail Hanyieh government? Would you say it is:

 

1) Very good 

5.8

5.7

6.0

 

2) Good 

23.7

20.1

29.4

 

3) Fair

19.9

18.9

21.5

 

4) Bad

24.7

26.0

22.5

 

5) Very bad

15.5

13.4

19.0

 

6) DK/NA

10.4

15.9

1.6

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

09)

Would you say that these days your security and safety, and that of your family, is assured or not assured?

 

1) Completely assured

9.7

4.3

18.8

 

2) Assured

51.3

51.1

51.5

 

3) Not assured  

31.3

36.9

22.0

 

4) Not assured at all 

7.6

7.6

7.6

 

5) DK/NA

0.1

 

0.2

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

10)

Tell us how do you evaluate the performance of the dismissed government of Ismail Haniyeh in the Gaza Strip? Is it good or bad?

 

1) Very Good

8.9

7.5

11.1

 

2) Good

30.2

28.5

33.0

 

3) Neither good nor bad

21.4

18.7

25.9

 

4) Bad

20.9

22.0

19.2

 

5) Very Bad

7.2

5.4

10.3

 

6) No Opinion/Don’t know

11.3

17.9

0.5

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

11)

Tell us how do you evaluate the performance of the government headed by Salam Fayyad ? Is it good or bad?

 

1) Very Good

8.8

8.6

9.2

 

2) Good

33.3

34.7

31.1

 

3) Neither good nor bad

23.8

25.1

21.8

 

4) Bad

18.6

17.8

19.9

 

5) Very Bad

7.1

5.6

9.4

 

6) No Opinion/Don’t know

8.3

8.2

8.6

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

12)

Are you satisfied or not satisfied with the performance of Mahmud Abbas since his election as president of the PA?

 

1) Very satisfied

7.6

6.2

10.0

 

2) Satisfied

39.2

41.2

35.7

 

3) Not satisfied 

36.7

38.0

34.5

 

4) not satisfied at all

13.4

11.2

17.0

 

5) DK/NA

3.1

3.3

2.8

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

13)

If new presidential elections are to take place today, and Mahmud Abbas was nominated by Fateh and Ismail Haniyeh was nominated by Hamas, whom would you vote for?

 

1) Mahmud Abbas

50.4

50.1

50.9

 

2) Ismail Haniyeh

40.2

39.9

40.6

 

3 DK/NA

9.4

10.1

8.5

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

14)

And if the competition was between Marwan Barghouti representing Fateh and Ismail Haniyeh representing Hamas, whom would you vote for?

 

1) Marwan Barghouti

62.7

63.9

61.0

 

2) Ismail Haniyeh

32.3

29.4

36.3

 

3) No Opinion/ Don’t know

5.1

6.7

2.7

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

15)

If you were to select a vice president, whom would you select from among the following list of candidates?

 

1) Ismail Haniyeh

18.9

15.3

25.0

 

2) Salam Fayyad

13.8

16.6

9.3

 

3) Marwan Barghouti

30.0

29.4

30.9

 

4) Mustafa Barghouti

10.6

10.1

11.4

 

5) Saeb Erekat

5.0

4.2

6.2

 

6) Others (specify: ------------ )

8.1

8.2

8.0

 

7) DK/NA

13.5

16.2

9.2

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

17)

 

If new elections agreed to by all factions are held today and the same lists that took part in the last PLC elections were nominated, for whom would you vote?

 

1) alternative

2.0

3.0

0.6

 

2) independent Palestine

3.0

3.5

2.3

 

3) Abu Ali Mustafa

2.8

3.5

1.7

 

4) Abu al Abbas

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

5) freedom and social justice

0.2

0.4

0.00

 

6) change and reform

27.7

25.7

30.7

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

 

7) national coalition for justice and democracy

0.1

0.2

0.0

 

8) third way

2.2

3.2

0.8

 

9) freedom and independence

0.7

0.8

0.6

 

10) Palestinian justice

0.2

0.2

0.3

 

11) Fateh

41.9

39.2

46.0

 

12) none of the above/ DK/NA

19.1

20.4

17.0

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

18)

After the separation between Gaza and the West Bank, Hamas and the government of Ismail Haniyeh remained in power in Gaza and considered itself the legitimate government while president Abu Mazin formed a new government headed by Salam Fayyad followed by a new government headed by Fayyad and it too considered itself legitimate. What about you, which of the two government you consider legitimate, the government of Haniyeh or the government of Abu Mazin and Fayyad?

 

1) Haniyehs’ government is the legitimate one

28.4

28.5

28.2

 

2) Abu Mazin’s and Fayyad government is the legitimate one

26.3

26.4

26.2

 

3) Both governments are legitimate

9.4

9.6

8.9

 

4) Both governments are not legitimate

30.5

29.3

32.3

 

5) DK/NA

5.5

6.1

4.4

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

19)

From among the following three Palestinian priorities, which in your opinion is the most important one today?

 

1) Gaza reconstruction

16.7

18.0

14.5

 

2) reconciliation and reunification of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip

59.3

60.1

57.9

 

3) opening of Gaza crossings with Egypt and Israel

23.8

21.7

27.3

 

4) DK/NA

0.2

0.2

0.2

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

20)

To what extent are you worried or not worried that you or a member of your family could be hurt by Israel in your daily life or that your land would be confiscated or home demolished?

 

1. Very Worried

33.9

31.1

38.6

 

2. Worried

42.8

44.1

40.8

 

3. Not worried

17.3

18.7

15.0

 

4. Not worried at all

5.8

6.1

5.3

 

5.DK/NA

0.1

0.1

0.2

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

21)

In light of the visit by Nabil Sha’at to the Gaza Strip last month, what are your expectations for the future of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip?

 

1) unity will resume in the near future

14.8

11.9

19.5

 

2) unity will resume but will take a long time

46.6

46.9

45.9

 

3) unity will not resume and two separate entities will emerge

30.8

32.0

28.9

 

4) DK/NA

7.8

9.2

5.7

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

22)

Mahmud Abbas’s term as president of the Palestinian Authority ended last January 2010 without new elections being held on that date. Did he or did not he lose his legitimacy as president of the PA?

 

1) certainly lost legitimacy

18.1

14.4

24.1

 

2) lost legitimacy

34.8

37.4

30.4

 

3) did not lose legitimacy

34.8

37.0

31.2

 

4) certainly did not lose legitimacy

6.4

4.6

9.5

 

5) DK/NA

5.9

6.6

4.8

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

23)

Similarly, the Palestinian Legislative Council’s term ended in January 2010 without new elections being held on that date. Did it lose or did not lose its legitimacy?

 

1) certainly lost legitimacy

15.7

13.1

19.9

 

2) lost legitimacy

37.8

40.0

34.2

 

3) did not lose legitimacy

33.9

35.0

32.2

 

4) certainly did not lose legitimacy

4.6

2.9

7.4

 

5) DK/NA

8.1

9.1

6.4

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

24)

In your view, who is responsible for the continued split in the PA between the West Bank and the West Bank, Hamas or Fateh

 

1) Hamas

14.2

11.3

18.8

 

2) Fateh

11.8

10.9

13.2

 

3) both

64.3

65.4

62.4

 

4) Neither

2.9

3.7

1.7

 

5) other

4.4

5.4

2.8

 

6) DK/NA

2.5

3.2

1.2

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

25)

The Palestinian Election Commission announced that it could not conduct elections on the constitutional date of last January 2010; who in your view was responsible for preventing the holding of elections on time?

 

1) Fateh

11.5

11.5

11.6

 

2) Hamas

24.0

15.6

37.8

 

3) the election commission

9.1

10.3

7.0

 

4) Israel

30.9

32.7

28.0

 

5) Other (specify; …… )

15.7

19.3

9.6

 

6) DK/NA

8.9

10.6

6.0

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

26)

If Hamas wins next legislative and president elections, will this in your view lead to the lifting or to tightening of the international boycott of the Palestinian government?

 

1) will lead to the lifting of the boycott

12.1

11.3

13.3

 

2) will lead to the tightening of the boycott

61.0

60.7

61.6

 

3) conditions will stay as they are today

22.6

22.9

22.0

 

4) DK/NA

4.3

5.1

3.1

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

27)

And what about the unity between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip? Will a Hamas victory in the next legislative and presidential elections lead to consolidation of unity between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip or will it lead to consolidating the split between the two areas?

 

1) will lead to consolidation of WBGS unity

18.5

17.3

20.6

 

2) will lead to consolidation of WBGS split

46.3

43.6

50.7

 

3) conditions of WBGS will stay as they are today

29.3

32.5

24.1

 

4) DK/NA

5.8

6.6

4.6

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

28)

And what if Fateh wins new legislative and president elections, will this in your view lead to the lifting or to tightening of the international boycott of the Palestinian government?

 

1) will lead to the lifting of the boycott

56.7

46.3

73.9

 

2) will lead to the tightening of the boycott

8.9

10.7

6.0

 

3) conditions will stay as they are today

29.7

38.0

16.0

 

4) DK/NA

4.7

5.0

4.1

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

29)

And what about the unity between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip? Will a Fateh victory in the next legislative and presidential elections lead to consolidation of unity between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip or will it lead to consolidating the split between the two areas?

 

1) will lead to consolidation of WBGS unity

32.1

26.1

42.0

 

2) will lead to consolidation of WBGS split

27.0

25.3

29.8

 

3) conditions of WBGS will stay as they are today

34.6

41.9

22.6

 

4) DK/NA

6.3

6.7

5.7

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

30)

Palestinian cabinet decided to hold local elections in the West Bank in July 2010 even if reconciliation between Fateh and Hamas was not achieved by that date. All factions agreed to participate in these elections with the exception of Hamas which conditioned its participation with the achievement of reconciliation. What do you think about this matter: do you support or oppose the holding of local elections on the date set even if reconciliation was not achieved by then?

 

1) certainly support

11.4

11.1

11.8

 

2) support

42.9

48.5

33.8

 

3) oppose

27.0

25.8

28.9

 

4) certainly oppose

14.0

10.1

20.3

 

5) DK/NA

4.7

4.4

5.2

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

31)

[for West Bank respondents only] If local elections were held in the West Bank before the achievement of reconciliation and all factions participated except Hamas, would you participate or not participate?

 

1) certainly will participate

15.3

15.3

 

 

2) will participate

37.7

37.7

 

 

3) will not participate

31.5

31.5

 

 

4) certainly will not participate

11.3

11.3

 

 

5) DK/NA

4.1

4.1

 

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

32)

There are press reports about corruption and scandals in the Palestinian Authority including a video tape that was aired in the Israeli TV and was presented as something that the Palestinian Intelligence Department has filmed. As a result, President Abbas has suspended the head of office from work and has established an investigation committee to examine the reports. In the meanwhile, the PA says the talk about corruption and scandals is full of exaggerations and fabrications from Israeli sources against the PA. Have your heard about these reports?

 

1) Yes, I have heard about them and have seen the video tape

40.0

43.3

34.5

 

2) I only heard or read about them

31.5

30.6

33.0

 

3) I neither heard about nor read them (go to Q34)

28.2

25.8

32.0

 

4) DK/NA

0.3

0.3

0.4

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

33)

What is your assessment? Do you believe or do not believe the reports?

 

1) certainly believe them

46.5

48.3

43.2

 

2) tend to generally believe them

22.8

23.7

21.1

 

3) tend to think they are exaggeration and fabrications from Israeli sources

12.2

11.0

14.2

 

4) Certain they are exaggeration and fabrications from Israeli sources

11.7

10.8

13.3

 

5) DK/NA

6.8

6.1

8.1

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

34)

As stated earlier, the president established an investigation committee to look into the report of corruption and scandals. Tell us to what extent you have confidence in the work of this committee:

 

1) I have a great deal of confidence in it

14.1

13.2

15.6

 

2) I have an average level of confidence in it

27.0

27.7

26.0

 

3) I have little confidence in it

17.4

19.5

13.8

 

4) I have no confidence at all in it

32.7

31.5

34.5

 

5) DK/NA

8.8

8.1

10.0

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

35)

As stated earlier, it was reported that the video tape that recoded the head of Abbas’s office in an embarrassing situation was recorded by the PA department of intelligence. Do you believe or do not believe this report?

 

1) certainly believe it

23.3

25.2

20.1

 

2) tend to believe it

26.9

29.4

23.0

 

3) tend not to believe it

20.5

18.1

24.4

 

4) certainly do not believe it

17.0

16.1

18.4

 

5) DK/NA

12.4

11.3

14.2

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

36)

And now tell us what you think about this. Do you accept or do not accept the involvement of a PA governmental department in photographing Palestinians in embarrassing situations as the case may have been with the head of the office of the PA president?

 

1) certainly accept

11.4

14.4

6.5

 

2) tend to accept

10.7

10.9

10.4

 

3) tend to reject

21.1

21.0

21.1

 

4) certainly reject

53.3

51.7

55.9

 

5) DK/NA

3.5

1.9

6.1

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

37)

People these days talk about the goals behind the iron wall that Egypt is currently building underground on its borders with Rafah. Tell us what you think the Egyptian goal is. Does it aim at:

 

1) consolidating the siege around the Gaza strip

31.0

34.9

24.6

 

2) pressure Hamas to sign the reconciliation document

34.7

29.6

43.1

 

3) protect Egypt’s security against smugglers

27.8

27.0

29.2

 

4) others (specify ---- or indicate combination of aims from those listed above)

3.4

4.9

0.8

 

5) DK/NA

3.1

3.6

2.3

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

38)

There is a proposal that after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and the settlemnet of all issues in dispute, including the refugees and Jerusalem issues, there will be a mutual recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinians people. Do you agree or disagree to this proposal?

 

1) Definitely agree

8.2

7.1

10.1

 

2) agree

41.5

44.6

36.4

 

3) disagree

33.5

34.7

31.6

 

4) definitely disagree

15.4

11.7

21.4

 

5) DK/NA

1.3

1.8

0.4

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

39)

And what is the Palestinian majority opinion on this issue? Do most Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza support or oppose the recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people at the end of the peace process?

 

1) Majority supports

44.9

46.0

43.1

 

2) Majority opposes

46.9

44.6

50.9

 

3) DK/NA

8.2

9.4

6.1

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

40)

And what is the Israeli majority opinion on this issue? Do most Israelis support or oppose the recognition of Israel as the state of the Jewish people and Palestine as the state of the Palestinian people at the end of the peace process?

 

1) Majority supports

35.5

32.8

40.0

 

2) Majority opposes

54.9

56.7

52.0

 

5) DK/NA

9.5

10.5

8.0

 

 

 

 

 

41)

Now more than 40 years after the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, what in your view are the chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state next to the state of Israel in the next five years? Are they high, medium, low, or none existent?

 

1) None existent

34.6

34.5

34.8

 

2) Low

35.9

37.6

33.2

 

3) Medium

22.8

23.0

22.5

 

4) High

4.9

3.0

8.0

 

5) DK/NA

1.7

1.8

1.6

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

42)

According to the Saudi plan, Israel will retreat from all territories occupied in 1967 including Gaza the West Bank, Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, and a Palestinian state will be established. The refugees problem will be resolved through negotiation in a just and agreed upon manner and in accordance with UN resolution 194 which allows return of refugees to Israel and compensation. In return, all Arab states will recognize Israel and its right to secure borders, will sign peace treaties with her and establish normal diplomatic relations.  Do you agree or disagree to this plan?

 

1) Certainly agree

8.1

6.4

10.8

 

2) agree

51.8

54.0

48.2

 

3) disagree

25.5

25.4

25.8

 

4) Certainly disagree

11.1

10.0

12.8

 

5) DK/NA

3.5

4.2

2.4

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

43)

What do you think are the aspirations of Israel for the long run?

 

1. Withdrawal from the territories it occupied in 1967 after guaranteeing its security

8.0

6.9

9.8

 

2. Withdrawal form part of the occupied territories after guaranteeing its security

8.4

9.6

6.3

 

3. Annexation of the West Bank while denying political rights of Palestinian citizens

17.8

17.6

18.1

 

4. Extending the borders of the state of Israel to cover all the area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and expelling its Arab citizens 

63.2

62.8

63.7

 

5. DK/NA

2.6

3.0

2.0

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

44)

What do you expect to happen between Palestinians and Israelis now after the assassination of Mahmoud Al-Mabhuh In Dubai and the Israeli announcement of Al Haram al Ibrahimi in Hebron and Masjid Bilal in Bethlehem as part of Israeli historic national heritage?

 

1) Negotiations will resume soon enough and armed confrontations will stop

14.4

16.4

11.3

 

2) Negotiations will resume but some armed attacks will continue

36.5

34.2

40.2

 

3) Armed confrontations will not stop and the two sides will not return to negotiations

43.3

42.6

44.3

 

4) DK/NA

5.8

6.8

4.1

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

45)

And generally speaking is it possible or impossible to reach these days a final status settlement with Israel?

 

1. Definitely possible

2.4

2.0

2.9

 

2. Think it is possible

24.8

24.7

24.9

 

3. Think it is impossible

41.8

40.1

44.6

 

4. definitely impossible

29.9

31.9

26.6

 

5. DK/NA

1.1

1.2

0.9

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

46)

Do you support or oppose the solution based on the establishment of a Palestinian State alongside Israel known as the two States solution?

 

1.Definitely support

8.5

7.8

9.5

 

2.Support

48.9

51.4

44.8

 

3.Oppose

29.6

28.9

30.7

 

4.Definitely oppose

11.6

10.5

13.4

 

5 DN/NA (Do not read)

1.5

1.4

1.6

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

47)

Some people think that the best solution to the conflict is one in which Israel is unified with the West Bank and the Gaza Strip to establish one state whereby Palestinian Arabs and Israeli Jews would be equal. Do you support or oppose this solution?

 

1.Definitely support

4.1

4.4

3.6

 

2.Support

24.7

30.0

16.0

 

3.Oppose

47.5

46.4

49.3

 

4.Definitely oppose

21.6

16.5

30.1

 

5.DN/NA (Do not read)

2.1

2.7

1.1

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

48)

And what about a solution of a Palestinian state alongside Israel where both states share joint political institutions which will eventually lead to a confederation. Do you support or oppose such a solution?

 

1.Definitely support

3.3

3.3

3.4

 

2.Support

23.0

25.8

18.4

 

3.Oppose

51.0

52.4

48.7

 

4.Definitely oppose

18.2

13.6

25.9

 

5.DN/NA (Do not read)

4.4

5.0

3.6

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

49)

And in your opinion which of the three solutions is most difficult to achieve?

 

             1.the two independent states solution

31.7

31.9

31.4

 

2. the one state with equal rights solution

42.4

43.1

41.2

 

3. the two states jointly in confederation

18.1

17.4

19.2

 

4. DN/NA (Don’t read)

7.8

7.6

8.1

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

50)

There is an American invitation to the Palestinian side to return to peace negotiations with Israel without Israel ceasing settlement construction in East Jerusalem. But these negotiations will be indirect and with US mediation. Do you support or oppose the Participation of the Palestinian side in these negotiations?

 

1) certainly support

2.4

1.5

4.0

 

2) Support

23.0

23.2

22.8

 

3) Oppose

46.5

51.4

38.3

 

4) certainly oppose

26.0

21.6

33.2

 

5) DK/NA

2.1

2.4

1.6

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

51)

Concerning armed attacks against Israeli civilians inside Israel, I….

 

1) Strongly support

17.9

12.0

27.5

 

2) Support

29.3

28.8

30.1

 

3) Oppose

40.2

45.8

31.0

 

4) Strongly oppose

10.0

10.0

9.9

 

5) DK/NA

2.7

3.4

1.5

 

 

Total

West Bank

Gaza Strip

52)

Which of the following political parties do you support?

 

1) PPP

0.7

1.0

0.2

 

2) PFLP

2.5

2.3

2.9

 

3) Fateh

30.1

29.6

31.0

 

4) Hamas

21.7

19.1

25.9

 

5) DFLP

0.8

1.2

0.0

 

6) Islamic Jihad

1.1

0.8

1.6

 

7) Fida

0.0

0.0

0.0

 

8) National Initiative (Mubadara)

1.1

1.3

0.8

 

9) Independent Islamists

2.7

2.0

3.7

 

10) Independent Nationalists

5.9

6.3

5.4

 

11) None of the above

32.6

35.4

28.0

 

12) Other, specify

0.9

1.1

0.6

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