Special Poll - December 2004 - January 2005

PSR conducted three exit polls during the recent local and presidential elections. The presidential elections’ exit poll was conducted on 9 January 2005 and aimed at understanding electoral behavior of voters and to predict the outcome of the elections. PSR published its predictions immediately upon the closing of election centers. The size of the sample used for prediction purposes reached 8400. The sample used for survey research purposes reached 1545. The local elections’ exit polls were conducted on 23 December 2004 in the West Bank and on 27 January 2005 in the Gaza Strip. Here too, we sought to understand electoral behavior and to predict the outcome of the elections. PSR predicted the outcome of the Gaza elections in a press statement that was issued upon the closure of the voting stations.  For prediction purposes, we interviewed 5400 voters in the West Bank and 3500 in the Gaza Strip; and for survey research purposes we interviewed a randomly selected sample of 1297 voters in the West Bank and 940 in the Gaza Strip.

Polls’ findings show that the considerations of the voters in the presidential elections were different from those of the voters in the local elections. In the presidential elections, voters wanted a president who is able to improve the economic conditions and to resume the peace process. In the local elections, the integrity/incorruptibility of the candidates was the primary consideration. In the presidential elections, Mahmud Abbas was the candidate most perceived to meet voters’ requirements. In the local elections, Hamas candidates were perceived by the voters to be most uncorrupt while Fateh’s candidates (with whom voters shared similar views on the need to return to peace negotiations) were abandoned because most voters saw them tainted with corruption. 

For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki at telephone 02 296 4933 or email at: pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

Presidential Elections 

The sample for the presidential exit poll was selected from 120 polling stations randomly selected from among a total of 3040 stations provided by the Palestinian Central Elections Commission (PCEC). The randomly selected polling stations were distributed all over West Bank and Gaza Strip districts in accordance with the size of voters in each district. Polling was coordinated with PCEC in order to insure that PSR work does not influence the election process. The following findings are based on interviews with 1545 randomly selected voters.

Main Findings: 

Abbas’ Voters vs. Barghouti’s 

Mahmud Abbas received more support in the Gaza Strip than in the West Bank. He also received more votes among the less educated, the employees, those working in the public sector, married voters, older people, the more religious, and the most supportive of the peace process and from Fateh. Mustafa Barghouti received more support in the West Bank than in the Gaza Strip. He also received more support among the more educated, students, those working in the private sector, the unmarried, the young, the less religious, the less supportive of the peace process, and among supporters of the PFLP, Hamas, independents, and the non-affiliated...