CPRS Public Opinion Poll 40

These are the results of opinion poll # 40, conducted by the Center for Palestine Research & Studies, between 15-17 April 1999. The poll deals with the Peace Process, evaluation of PA performance, status of democracy, corruption, death penalty, developments in Jordan, elections for the president and vice president, and political affiliation.
The total sample size of this poll is 1315 from Palestinians 18 years and older, of which 820 in the West Bank and 495 in the Gaza Strip. The margin of error is + 3% and the non-response rate is 3%.

1. Peace Process

• Support for the peace process reaches 70% and opposition 26%
• Support for armed attacks against Israelis rises to 45% and opposition reaches 48%
• Support for a declaration of independence on May 4, 1999 drops from 52% two months ago to 43% now, and support for postponement reaches 48%
• 19% believe that Barak is more capable of moving the peace process forward, while only 3% think the same of Netanyahu, and 63% see no difference between the two

Poll results show a high level of support for the peace process (70%) even if it indicates a slight drop from the 73% obtained two months ago. The results show that support for the peace process increases in towns and villages (75%) compared to cities (66%). The level of support is also affected by the level of education, with 78% among the illiterates and 57% among BA degree holders. Support for the peace process is also affected by occupation: it increases among farmers (86%) and housewives (79%) and decreases among students (61%). Support also increases among those with the least income (73%) and decreases among those with the highest income (57%). It increases among supporters of Fateh (84%) and decreases among supporters of Hamas (47%).

Despite the high level of support for the peace process, support for armed attacks against Israelis has risen from 41% two months ago to 45% in this poll. Opposition to armed attacks stands at 48%. This development shows a return to the pre Wye River agreement situation in which large sections of the Palestinian street supported the peace process and armed attacks simultaneously. The consistent support for the peace process and the fluctuation in the support for violence point to the possible conclusion that many Palestinians view the latter as a means of moving the former forward and not as an alternative to it.

The results also reveal a decline in support for the unilateral declaration of statehood in 4 May 1999 standing today at 43% compared to the levels obtained two and three months ago (52% and 57% respectively). The decline may have been influenced by the recent talk by Palestinian officials about a possible postponement of the declaration. Support for postponement has increased from 39% two months ago to 48% today.

The poll shows that the Palestinians do not count much on the results of the Israeli elections. The majority (63%) does not see a difference between the Likud and Labor in terms of their ability to move the peace process forward. Nonetheless, more Palestinians (19%) think that a government led by Barak is better for the peace process, while only 3% believe that a government led by Nehatnyahu is better.

2. Evaluation of the Performance of the Palestinian Political Institutions

• Positive evaluation of the PLC performance reaches 43%
• Positive evaluation of the presidency reaches 53%, security services 52%, cabinet 47%, the judiciary 42%, and opposition parties and factions 33%

The results show a decline in the positive evaluation of the performance of all Palestinian political institutions. The PLC received a positive evaluation of 43%, compared to 49% three months ago. The presidency received a positive evaluation of 53%, compared to 56% three months ago. The security services received a positive evaluation of 52%, compared to 56% three months ago. The cabinet received a positive evaluation of 47% compared to 49% three months ago. Finally, the judiciary received a positive evaluation of 42% compared to 48% three months ago. It is worth mentioning that the highest level of positive evaluation for the PLC performance stood at 51% in December 1997, 63% for the cabinet in December 1996, 55% for the judiciary in April 1997, 77% for the security services in April 1997, and 79% for the presidency in April 1997.

3. Conditions of Democracy and Corruption in the Palestinian areas

• Positive evaluation of Palestinian democracy reaches 26%, its lowest level since 1996
• Positive evaluation of democracy in Israel reaches 66%, in the US 54%, and in France 45%
• Positive evaluation of democracy in Jordan reaches 30%, and in Egypt 24%
• A majority of 56% believes that people, today, can not criticize the PA without fear (37%)
• Belief that corruption exists in PA institutions reaches 71%, its highest level ever, while a majority of 61% believes that it will increase or remain the same in the future
• People believe that corruption exists in ministries and government offices (76%), in the security services (77%), in the PLC (49%), and in the office of the presidency (40%)

The results indicate that the positive evaluation of the state of democracy in Palestine has reached its lowest level ever with a percentage of 26%. Two months ago, that level stood at 36%, while the highest level stood at 50% two years ago. The percentage of those who believe that people can not criticize the PA without fear stands today at 56%.

It is evident from the survey that the majority of the Palestinians views positively the state of democracy in Israel (66%), followed by that of the US (54%), and France (45%). The positive evaluation of democracy in Jordan remained unchanged at 30%.

The results also indicate that the belief in the existence of corruption in PA institutions has reached its highest levels ever, standing at 71%. Two months ago, that level stood at 54%, while the lowest level stood at 49% in September 1996. The percentage of those who believe that corruption will increase in the future or remain as it is today, increased from 58% two months ago to 61% today.

It is worth noticing that the belief in the existence of corruption in the security services has increased from 70% two months ago to 77% today. It has also increased from 37% to 40% with regard to corruption in the office of the presidency, and from 47% to 49% with regard to corruption in the PLC.

Belief in the existence of corruption increases especially in the Gaza Strip (76%) compared to the West Bank (68%), in Gaza City (80%) and refugee camps (78%) compared to towns and villages (65%), among men (79%) compared to women (62%), among the younger ages, between 18-22 years old, (75%) compared to those over 52 years old (66%), among holders of BA degrees (88%) compared to the illiterates (53%), among students (83%) compared to housewives (58%), among those working in the public sector (90%) compared to those in the private sector (78%), among the high income people (86%) compared to low income people (67%), and among supporters of Hamas (78%) compared to supporters of Fateh (70%).

4. The position on the death penalty

• Only 10% support the death penalty in all normal, political, and security cases, while 27% oppose it in all cases
• 65% support the death penalty in cases involving normal crimes only
• 66% oppose the death penalty in political and security cases

The results show that a majority of Palestinians (65%) supports the death penalty for normal crimes and 27% oppose it. A similar majority of 66%, however, opposes the death penalty in political and security cases, and only 10% support it.

Opposition to the death penalty in all normal and political cases increases in the West Bank (32%) compared to the Gaza Strip (18%), in Nablus (41%) compared to Deir al-Balah (13%), in towns and villages (30%) compared to refugee camps (18%), among women (30%) compared to men (23%), among those between 48-52 yeold (38%) compared to thosebetween 18-22 years old (25%), among the illiterates (36%) compared to those with BA degrees (27%), among the middle income people, with monthly earnings of JD 600-900, (36%) compared to high income (23%) and low income people (27%).

5. Recent Developments in Jordan

• 46% view positively the recent developments in Jordan, and 7% view it negatively
• 35% believe that these developments will have no impact on Palestinian-Jordanian relations

While about a third of the respondents believes that the recent changes in Jordan will have no impact on Jordanian-Palestinian relations, a larger percentage (46%) believes that they will have a positive one, and a small percentage (7%) believe they will have a negative one. The level of those who believe that it will have a positive impact increases among holders of BA degrees (50%) compared to the illiterates (40%), among students (50%) compared to laborers (38%), among those who work in the public sector (50%) compared to those working in the private sector (41%), and among those with the lowest income (46%) compared to those with the highest income (34%).

6. Elections and Political Sympathy

• Only 24% support extending the life of the current PLC after May 4, 1999, while 54% support holding new legislative elections
• In presidential elections, Yassir Arafat receives the support of 46%, Ahmad Yasin 11%, and Haidar Abdul Shafi 10%
• In elections for the office of vice president involving three candidates, Haidar Abdul Shafi receives the support of 38%, Sa’eb Erikat 23%, and Faisal al-Husseini 22%
• In elections for the office of vice president involving Husseini and Erikat only, the first receives the support of 39% and the second 34%
• In elections for the office of vice president involving Abdul Shafi and Erikat only, the first receives the support of 48% and the second 36%
• In elections for the office of vice president involving Abdul Shafi and Husseini only, the first receives the support of 51% and the second 33%
• Fateh receives the support of 39%, Hamas 12%, Islamic Jihad 4%, the PFLP 3%, and the nonaffiliated stand at 38%

The results indicate that a majority of 54% supports holding new legislative elections, while about a quarter supports the renewal of the mandate of the current PLC beyond May 4, 1999. A percentage of 14% supports neither choices. Support for holding new legislative elections increases in the Gaza Strip (59%) compared to the West Bank (50%), in cities (59%) compared to towns and villages (48%), among men (61%) compared to women (46%), among those between 18-22 years old (64%) compared to those over 52 years old (46%), among holders of BA degree (66%) compared to illiterates (41%), among students (64%) compared to housewives (44%), among those working in the public sector (67%) compared to those working in the private sector (59%), among the high income people (69%) compared to the low income people (50%), and among supporters of Fateh (55%) compared to supporters of Hamas (52%).

The results indicate that Yassir Arafat’s popularity remains the same (46%) as it was two months ago. The same is true with regard to Ahmad Yassin’s (11%) and Haidar Abdul Shafi (10%). Arafat’s popularity stood at 51% in the Gaza Strip and 43% in the West Bank. Yassin and Abdul Shafi’s popularity is almost equal in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

In a competition among eight candidates for the position of the vice president, Abdul Shafi received the highest percentage of votes (14%), followed by Sa’eb Erikat (8%), Faisal al-Husseini and Farouq al Qaddoumi (7% each), Ahmad Qurai’ and Hanan Ashrawi (6% each), Mahmoud Abbas (4%), and Nabil Sha’ath (3%).

In a competition among three candidates for the position of the vice president, Abdul Shafi received 38% of the vote, followed by Erikat (23%) and Husseini (22%). Abdul Shafi received more votes in the Gaza Strip (48%) than in the West Bank (31%), while the other two received more votes in the West Bank than in the Gaza Strip.

When the competition was among Abdul Shafi and Erikat only, the first received 48% and the second received 36%. When it was among Abdul Shafi and Husseini, the first received 51% and the second 33%. When it was among Husseini and Erikat, the first received 39% and the second 34%.

The results show a slight increase in support for Fateh (39% compared to 37% two months ago. Hamas’ popularity remain the same as it was two months ago) (12%); and so did the PFLP’s (3%). The total support for the Islamists stood at 19%, and the nonaffiliated stood at 38%....More